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The flaw in your thought process is that you presume time exists independently of god or creation, as a fabric onto which creation was imposed and then recorded.

The aim being to provide adaption to new data so as to track varying market behaviour. And if anyone manages to set up a model of that process the next problem is to determine the period of the in-sample data which optimises performance of the adaption process over past data.

BS

Basically, the problem is one of System Identification for which there is a vast literature in control systems and econometrics. If you really want to have an answer to your question then you need to be asking people who have understanding of system modelling, developing, testing, performance...

Utter rubbish

And the Cheetah will not keep chasing for too long should the prey out run it.

Personally I have no faith in fibs apart from the 50% level as a potential target. However, for quickly seeing context the fib tool found in every chart package is very useful when the levels are redefined to be equally spaced. In that case the tool allows a number of equally spaced horizontal...

Time to wake up and be realistic. The masses are idiots. Give the masses what they want and they applaud. Personnally I tend to ignore those who post the most and get the most 'likes'.

This doesn't add up. Your use of English and grammar is extremely good so I think you are being untruthful.

OK then, its not all piss.

Its not difficult to find a simple strategy that is profitable provided that trading costs (commission, spread and slippage) are small enough. In that respect retail traders are at a major disadvantage compared with pros.

Waffly nonsense! Perhaps you could explain your process in a special case that doesn't give away your 'secret'. A good place to start is to explain what you mean by the "success of the technical indication".

If you can compute this probability as a function of your parameters then you have produced a new indicator. If you can't compute it then you are making a subjective judgement of success or failure of the indicator.

What you are describing appears to be your own customised indicators. Any function or identifiable feature of price history and volume is an indicator, even a logical function that says buy, sell, hold or wait. Having trading rules as a parametrised function gives scope to select the parameters...

Probably not, in which case you have an opportunity to create one.

Sometimes I think this thread is taken a bit too seriously as it basically comes across as an excercise in philosophy and often seems like a monumental piss take

Yes the decay back following a large move is an opportunity. It stopped on the 12th then dropped: I recall some saying to go long on Teva after the gap down in late August but it kept dropping. BTW I seem to recall, years ago, but forget details of a thread on T2W by Socrates about animal...

By people you really mean fools! Anyone with an analytical background, who understands basic mathematics and probabilities should not be susceptible to such misconceptions.

In the past some did shout Look at me I see the light But they all go quiet So doubt their claim of being that bright What V does see Makes sense to him Might not be BEE But some other thing Not matter though So long as from his insight He makes some dough Then perhaps he is bright To know...