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I've still got a large portion of my options money in Sept 90 DIA puts. Reasons why I think the DOW will go below 8700 (my average break even point) by the 3rd week of Sept: Historically, Aug and Sept are the markets worst months. The VIX, VXN are signaling incredible complaceny. Ditto for...

He was interviewed by Jack Shawagger. Back then, the interview centered around his obsession about the markets, looking at tons of charts, getting an edge, and using similar tactics as other Market Wizards. If you're throwing around $150 million in commissions, that should buy you an...

Gen Franks now says we could be in Iraq for another 4 years (gasp!). The economy and the Iraqi rebuilding effort will catch up with W. I don't think it matters who the Democrats put on the ticket. Why the Democrats aren't playing up the economy more is beyond me. The litany of statistics...

There's no way this guy can get re elected. It looks rosey now, but in 15 months, things could change. Has any american president ever been re elected after the economy was substantially worst off while he was in office? I doubt it. This re election talk is a pie in the sky pipe dream. His...

I just can't see how the american people will re elect this guy in 2004. The economy could still be in a mess, unemployment could be much higher than it is now, the housing bubble could burst, the post war Iraq work could still be ongoing, etc. Has anyone ever been re elected in which during...

Most of the wall street bulls are still sticking to the mantra that the govts tax cuts will help stimulate the economy. Sorry, but for Californians, they are meaningless. The few hundred in tax cuts recieved by each person will be spent on new DMV registration increases! The perma bulls are...

For those of you in Cali, what do you think of this budget crisis? The state is virtually bankrupt, there's hardly enough money to get through August, govt spending is being cut in key areas like health care and education. I wonder, if California can't borrow any private money, if the budget...

I'd argue that the investor intelligence numbers confirm the complaceny in the market. Look at a 5 year weekly chart of the VIX. It's never "different this time". This will be a major turning point in the market.

Putting Bollinger Bands around the VIX shows a dramatic squeeze in volatility. The bands haven't been this tight in years. The VIX has been drifting between 24 and 22 for almost 2 months now. It looks to be setting up for a major move upwards. The VXN is near an all time low. Quite ironic...

I'm itching to pull the trigger on some Jan '05 FNM and FRE puts. In a year and a half you could have: Housing bubble pops Derivitive blow ups Accounting, SEC investigations For FNM, with the $70 puts at around $10, you could see those go up many times in value. The stock is only...

Maria "sell stocks short right at the bottom in July 2002" Bartiromo. My other top two: Michelle Caruso Cabrera Liz Clayman How about the scariest anchor? Consuelo Mack, lol, takes that honor. Sheesh.....

It's no big suprise. Every now and then some big shot comes out and says TA is nothing but glorified tea leave readings, while others (myself included) absolutely believe the markets are inefficient. Warren Buffet, George Soros and the like are not the luckiest men in the world as academia...

I have a fascination with trading. For example, the daily stock charts of the 1929 crash, Gold in 1980, the Japan crash of 1990 and the Nasdaq crash of 2000 all have very similar chart patterns. Very similar. A near vertical, parabolic rise, an initial sharp decline/crash, a rebound, then a...

Interesting links. The look I'm going for is timeless and historic. Those ticker tape machines are really cool. There are replica machines for $450 or so, but I'd rather spend more to get an authentic original. With any photos or prints, I'd like to capture the emotional essence of Wall...

Time to liven up a rather dull home trading office. I'm in the process of getting the Crash of '29 original New York Times cover framed, as well as '87, '98 and April 2000. An interesting side by side comparision of crashes. I've also got a few famous magazine covers. Famous photos and...

Instead of picking the exact day of a top or bottom, I make bets about the general time frame. Like what the DOW, QQQ are doing right now, and buying puts a few months out. The first rule of trading I have is "what is a great and compelling reason to put on the trade." Saying, I hope this is...

I like paying more attention to investor pyschology than specific money flows. When you get one side of the market leaning too heavily in one direction, I have to at least consider going the other way regardless of what money flow tells me. When the newsletter writers are wildly bullish, that...

In A perfect Murder, Michael Douglas played a big time currency trader. His position was really romanticized in a way. He's got this glamorous office, art on the wall, a hot wife, a bank of monitors etc. The eptiome of a hot shot trader. Of course he eventually wiped out too.

This is a classical bear market rally. The VIX is quite low, Bull/Bear ratio is dramatically overextended, lots of good news and positive stories filling the headlines (Greenspan talking about an improving economy). This is exactly what is expected to happen given the current sentiment readings...

Does W really believe he'll get re elected in 2004 with this controversy? How can a president get relected if the economy is far worst off in the 4 years since he took office?? Over 2 million people have lost their jobs since he took office. State budget crisises are the worst in half a...