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1. Decide on your bias for a given underlying (direction, volatility). 2. Put on the vertical/calendar/wingspread that gives you that bias. 3. Exit when your objectives are met. Done

Good timely info. I don't trade the commodity, but did go long AA on friday at 39.5.

Check ivolatility.com

It's mentioned so often it hardly needs to be said again, but sell limited risk premium and have an exit plan. Prayer is over rated, and naked puts require lots of faith. If you can accept the mark to market losses, then go ahead and sell far otm premium.

Buy puts or put spreads on USO instead.

I originally assumed that athletes who go broke must have a good for nothing relative managing their money. But if you're monthly nut is crazy high due to the up keep of your 110 room house, the bengal tigers, and various other "toys" you acquire each month, then no money manager in the world...

Sure oil is way extended, but you got to have some major cajones to go short the futures into the weekend after today's move!

Nice. And with good volume as well.

If I understand your plan for SPY correctly, it was to be short the call spread, and the calendar was placed simply to hedge over the weekend. I don't think the calendar is such a good short term hedge. Even if the underlying moved to your calendar's short strike, the delta gains would be...

For beginner topics I wouldn't spend money on seminars, most of this material can be found for free on the web- eg, redoption/tos, cboe, theocc. After that move on to Natenberg and Cottle. And of course, spend a few years trading with real money since the market itself is the best teacher...

Whether it's ACD or some other method, controlled disciplined risk plus market sense and bet variation is how discretionary traders make money. ACD creates the framework, but you need the latter 2 skills to make money. Just buying or fading breakouts mechanically doesn't cut it. I think...

Wheat has been in a free fall the last few weeks. Oddly this coincides with a number of stories in popular magazines about the world's poor being at risk for starvation due to rising wheat prices. Anyone else looking to get long wheat around these levels? 750 looks like an obvious support...

Damn it's good to be rich. You can sing corny songs and still get mad respect. Seriously though, it's good to see what Seykota actually looks like. Hopefully future videos are more talking and less singing.

For '07 I have a few dividends I paid out on short stock positions. How do I account for this dividend expense on my taxes? Thanks.

His video reminds me of the local news weatherman. st

There's an entire thread by Maverick on this spread. If you slap it all on at once, there's no edge to it. But still a fun position to think about.

Chris I think we've all made similar decisions where we're right on direction and vol and somehow still lose money. In fact I think there was nothing wrong with your trade. Being long a bearishish calendar and long a otm put vertical should normally win when the market drops. A possible exit...

Per Sosnoff last week: "Our first release for S&P options on futures is scheduled for Feb... Dow, grains, euro, metals and oil will follow shortly thereafter."

Usman, What broad based funds are there that cover Pakistan for foreigners? The ADRs I've seen are mainly otc/pink sheets. st

Good point. What opponents? They're either dead, jailed, or exiled. I generally agree with Usman that this event likely doesn't have the cataclysmic effects some on this thread are predicting. I think it also speaks to how cynical and fatalistic people in South Asia have gotten regarding...