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Have you thought of the possibility that some real traders have their assistant to post here so you hypothesis may be totally wrong and cannot be confirmed by the method you are proposing? Ron

Because all the losers are looking for high probability trades and get killed. Success rate can be very low but overall profitability depends on the ratio of average win to average loss and profit factor as Michael Harris shows in details in his excellent article " Derivation of the...

The FED has never raised rates because of currency exchange rate considerations alone. Ron

If you think those numbers (P = 0.8, R = 1) are unrealistic you have been missing a lot. These are my actual numbers based on real trading for the past 10 years. I have been able to maintain such performance because I risk way below what is suggested by the Kelly formula,, 1/10 or less. At...

I think you have been missing the essence of things. Americans need lower $ to keep their export industry alive given the high trade deficit. Europeans need higher Euro to counterbalance high Oil prices since Crude is priced in $. At the same time, European exporters are getting the...

I see often references in books and websites to the Kelly formula as a revelation regarding optimal risk. Recall that the formula is : Kelly = P - [(1-P)/R] where: Kelly= fraction of capital to be put into a single trade P = Historical winning ratio of a trading system...

"Never sell a dull market" Ron

My response to those claims: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1525791#post1525791 Ron

24/09/1994 - close to the time a faster SMA (like a 20 -30 SMA) crossed the 200 SMA to the upside 30/10/2000 - this is close to the time the faster SMA crossed the 200 SMA to the downside, although there was an intermittent down cross followed by an up cross around 9/1998 depending on the...

According to that page if the probability of win is 80% and your Win/Loss ratio is equal to 1 then you should use 80% of your capital for optimal position size. You wouldn't do that, would you? First, note that the optimal position size does not even depend on the price of the asset. A...

Now, a post that makes sense. Bravo! Ron

Thanks maxpi but I think Crabel's book are outdated material given that he talks about point targets of 2.5 points in S&P when that index was in the range of 300-500 and at the time he wrote his books. Despite the fact that Crabel completely missed the possibility of using percent targets he...

Thanks Jimmy, I have the article but no details are given in it about an algorithm for calculating the p-Indicator. Ron

Is anyone here familiar with the p-Indicator developed by Michael Harris? Is there an algorithm available? Although the formula used to calculate the p-Indicator is given in books and articles by Mr. Harris, I have been unable to figure out the details and program it. It appears this is a...

You may be right but the discipline to execute even a simple plan may not be there. Your mistake is that you consider only the method but not the psychological burden it can impose of the trader executing it. For example, trend following is a fairly simple method. Just follow the trend...

Not quite so... You can adjust any game using proper variables so that it becomes a zero sum game. Also, you can adjust it so it becomes negative or positive sum game. Just introduce external benefits. But in principle, in any game where the sum of losses are equal to the sum of winnings the...

You are so correct. This is exactly what happened. Actually, in the news article there is a hidden contradiction. First it claims brokers make their money off the bid/ask spread. But then those brokers sue some clients who make a lot of money, alleging they are insiders. This is proof that they...

Refusing a contention is not a straw man argument. Why don't you open a book on logic to read what a straw man is.? It is exactly what the author of the video does. He creates the artificial image that money is debt and then attacks this image using all sorts of irrelevant references to archaic...

Why do you think money should be backed by gold? More importantly, why do you think a financial system where money is backed by gold is a better one? That kind of system can be manipulated by either cornering the gold market or increasing its supply and can be driven to hyper-inflation or...

Get ready for higher volatility and possibly a plunge. SEC has a short memory I think. Remember Oct. '87? The market is so nervous that any more increases in bond yield can take it back to where it started last year. Some people want that. They are called specialists. SEC is making a...