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Why are you looking for the next bubble when we are already in one?

Success rate means very little in this business. You can be right 95% of the time and still lose money. You can be right only 20% of the time and make a lot of money. The key is not just the success rate but the combination of success rate and avg. win to avg. loss ratio. These parameters...

Excellent program but only if you know what you are doing. I like the company, support is excellent. I also think Michael Harris is a true market wizard and I have learned a lot from his papers, books and software. APS can find tons of historically profitable patterns but you must find a way...

Actually, to be more precise, it means that the amount to risk in order to achieve geometric equity growth is equal to .58 of your account (current bankroll). However, the actual amount to risk will depend on the asset price and stop-loss. Michael Harris clarifies this in the following paper...

APS looks simple because of the simple interface but it's not a simple program. SS is kind of confusing to use. It is certainly a good product but I agree it just takes too long to run. Some statistics based on my testing: Search domain: OHLC patterns APS extended pattern search run: 1...

Not entirely correct. Both numbers describe a boundary condition and can be the outcome of an infinite number of data sets. This is just one problem. Ron

E = p x W - (1-p)L where: p = probability of win ~ 0 W = infinity L = 0 plug in and you get: E = p x W If p is small but still finite , then E = infinity. As p goes to zero in the limit, E becomes an undefined quantity. This means it can be either 0 or infinity, as already...

Expectancy is also related to optimal betting: http://www.tradingpatterns.com/Kelly.pdf Ron

Since APS just adds/subtracts the target/stop value from price, it makes sense to use 0.0001 x Number of pips. For 25 pips then the proper value to use is 0.0025 but make sure you specify "inc" on the search workspace otherwise your entries in the T/S file will be used as percentages of entry...

Does anyone know where I can get information about privately owned firms that do R&D in the field of alternative energy sources including nuclear energy? Thanks, Ron

Are you suggesting we stop trading right now? First of all, the first edge you described is illegal and it is called "front running". If you ever try to exploit such an edge you will probably end up with a huge fine and maybe behind bars. There are ways to find an edge before other do...

Check the list of running processes and disable from startup those that are not necessary: http://www.answersthatwork.com/Tasklist_pages/tasklist.htm This website changed my PC life. Ron

You assume same drawdown but there is no basis for such assumption. If they are using the same system for entries, then trader B will most probably experience higher drawdown levels and possibly higher returns. However, assuming for the moment same drawdown as you did, both traders have the...

I would like to know the theoretical justification for this. Why prefer a startegy optimized across a set of different markets/time frames as opposed to one that is optimized for each market/time frame and then taking the mean value of the parameters or selecting their value based on some other...

Americans use points and Europeans and a few others use percentages. If you are in the US, people rarely talk about the Dow Jones daily change in percentage but they use points. Europeans, very rarely use points and report price changes as percentages. I think using points is more...

Hi taowave, Does this program find the rules for you or you have to supply the rules and it finds the best rule_combination/rule_parameters based on those? Ron

True because there are now a days too many funds and you got law of large numbers in effect. Performance is just due to selection bias. (someone wins the lottery at the end of the day). I stopped using leverage a few years ago. I trade face value, like one bond futures contract for every 100K...

In three lines you said it all. Ron

You mean, markets are priced based on perceptions of fundamentals and often technicals, as well as, anticipation of information flow and other things. To say that markets are price based on just perceptions, that will raise the question: Perception of what? You cannot price anything just...

I think it is more an issue of cost than anything else. 60k for a program isn't exactly peanuts for anyone, even for hedge funds, and I noticed they require a fee of 20K per year after the first 2 years. APS can still get you tons of patterns at a fraction of the cost. I don't know if the...