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I'm cheap, so I like call spreads b/c I hate paying up for time value. The problem though is that the delta on the spreads is low and usually have to wait til close to expiration to monetize gain; and by then, trend could have reversed etc. So my initial idea is buying call spreads but...

interesting. wonder how far I can go out and still find liquidity.

Rtrader, yeah, my analysis is flawed in coffee. At any rate: just trade the charts right? Happy you were able to make some dough back on that reshort at 137.5. Cocoa took out the previous high so I'm happy about that. I offered my 2800/2900 Sep Call spreads at 65 pts and no takers...

I just realized my analysis on Coffee is moronic. A weaker Real should prompt HIGHER prices holding everything else equal as USD gains more purchasing power and can buy more Coffee in BRL terms. So that's long coffee. Not short.

Trade in the direction of the breakout I assume. I have no edge being short or long in this range in coffee but agree with you Shagi. Buy stops above 138 Sells stops below 130 We should expect range expansion and volatility to climb. At some point today when I was trying to buy my...

I still need to find a darn put to buy in Coffee. Any selections you guys like? Cocoa acted well today; no changes with that position. Good trading to all who have sold rallies on KC. YT as far as your short straddle in beans and KC go, I'm not sure I'm a vol seller here; the risk...

http://www.weather.com/outlook/travel/businesstraveler/tenday/BRXX0146?from=interactive_topnav_business I don't see cold weather on the horizon.

Coffee Rose on Concern Chilly Weather May Hurt 2009 Brazil Crop 2008-06-06 16:15 (New York) By Shruti Date Singh June 6 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee rose in New York, capping the biggest weekly gain in a month, on concern that cold air forecast to reach Brazil, the biggest grower in the...

YT, i don't like selling puts in Coffee, I think Coffee boots and takes out 130. I also studied your Dec straddles in the corn, but with the vol don't feel adequately rewarded by the premium. Your breakeven zones look interesting though, I must say, but am not particularly an option seller...

cattle

coffee

Crude

Here are the COT positioning graphs for select commodities as of 6/3/08's close for large speculators. Cocoa

I use MF/MAN too. How you like em? I certainly like them more than IB, though MTRADE is archaic. My brokers are fair and decent chaps. I pay 5.5 electronic and 12 for pit (r/t) plus all their assorted fees. Wonder what their "brokerage" fees are... 3rd party floor guys?

Hey guys, Well kicking myself on not having bought futures in OJ and instead playing it with the Call option but whatever. Cocoa did wonderful today and Sep traded to 2920. I was trying to sell the 2800/2900 spread at 65 today and was unable so ended up making markets in it just to see if...

Took profits, albeit probably premature on my OJ call. Sold at 570 pts. Guess I sold more in disappointment that I didn't get long the futures and rather played it with the options. Interestingly enough I had the order working on the floor all session long and when it closed I worked the...

I think the cattle crush spread goes like this 6 Live Cattle -3 Feeders - 2 Corn I forget when the seasonals favor buying the spread and selling it. If I remember, going into summer one initiates a long in the spread. Buy 6 Dec 08 Cattle, short 3 Jan 09 Feeders, short 2 Dec 08 Corn...

I missed this: (Update with closing share price in second paragraph.) By Choy Leng Yeong June 3 (Bloomberg) -- Tyson Foods Inc., the second-largest U.S. poultry producer, fell the most in almost nine months in New York trading after finding a flock of breeder hens was...

i just posted only to have my post fail. great. long story short i think OJ can run to 125. 3 days up, if we can make 5 days up and not take out the low I think we can run higher. OJ rallies have been sold consistently and we have a pretty strong downtrend. Coffee expect range expansion...

There was a system over the Yucatan Peninsula, but nothing terrible. On Coffee, a close over 142 and then 142.85 would have me reversing and going long. I agree with you and would play from the short side. I was still unable on my Dec 08 90 puts today. My view is that the Coffee chart...