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My usual reaction to a candlestick chart these days is "yeah, random walk/geometrical Brownian motion, WGAS. I'll take my pareidolia straight, no ice please." That one made me blink a few times. :confused: And now, I shall go and muse upon the iniquity of the human creature. Let's see... does...

Thought experiment: imagine you're a large institutional investor who knows, for certain, that many people will do exactly that. What would you do, and what would be the effect on all those hapless bears? (For every good, highly-liquid stock, there's a whole bunch of professionals watching it...

Daaaa-YUM. Most mechanical-looking chart ever. Pseudo-code algo for trading it: If the trend was down but is now sideways or up: 1. If we're flat: * If the current bar is red and its height is greater than the span covered by the last 8 bars, note the close of the previous bar...

This is perfect; thanks. Now I can at least visualize a general curve and have an idea of what the stakes are. Yeah, term structure will keep for a good while yet. ;) This is great context for the bits I've been struggling with, and plenty to think about; really appreciate it!

Hey, I'm the newbie here! :) 'Sall good. I just want to make sure that I'm getting what you mean. I'd say you called it right - 97 was well inside 2SD. I also like the little clue in your last sentence; that's a good way to nail down a fair amount of that elusive "how much of my trading...

I'm a bit lost here: a squeeze, to me, implies a (temporary) rally to squeeze out the shorts - but the first 10 minutes looked like a pearl diver holding a BIG rock. Different usage, maybe? Even more confusingly, I don't get how your hedge worked. Since you were long with your short put and...

I didn't say it was.

Simply flipping through charts won't teach you much of anything. In order to do good pattern recognition, you need to know what the pattern is to start with; otherwise, your brain will inevitably start seeing patterns where there aren't any. As the good doc pointed out, you need guidance and...

$120.13 SMH 191004P117.5 $1.00 VIX ~16.5; market not very active, with only the usual suspects (metals, bonds) on an IV scan. $120.60 SMH 191004P117.5 -$0.80 $20.00 75 minutes; this may be a record so far. :) $152.57 IWM 191018P149 $1.55 $142.28 TLT 191018P139.5 $1.00 $38.24 GDXJ 191018P37.5...

Math checked. Looks like the radix could stand a bit of repainting and a wax job, and the cap-sigma is looking a little bent, but a bit of hammering will soon put that right. Granted, you could structure what is nominally a debit trade to result in positive theta by selling more extrinsic than...

I really liked the writeup that @TheBigShort did elsethread on this - I certainly used to have a simpler (but clearly incorrect, once you realize how pricing works) view on it. In fact, thinking about it from the arbitrage perspective that you point out makes it obvious: are the MMs and the...

Thanks; yeah, that was the plan. Not real big on holding any trades to expiration... in fact, a friend of mine recently got assigned ten lots of SPY after she thought she was safe (spot was close to but still OTM on her 0-day IC when the market closed.) Fortunately for her, it rallied a bit and...

Ah. That clarifies things quite a bit. I'm inclined to help people when I can (given how much amazing help I've received over time), but there are certain indicators - snottiness, obstinacy, and inability to learn are pretty much definitive - that mean your're wasting your time and effort...

Riiight. It's simple. Let us know how it works out for ya.

Take it easy, Tom. If you do that for everybody who asks a newbie question, we won't have any brick walls left around here... and we really need them on occasion. To the OP: I can only hope that you're doing this in sim, because the real answer is that you should still be studying rather than...

OK, time to reconcile the log. I've been a Bad, Bad Trader... not keeping everything up in a timely manner... actually, I've been on the road covering 2k+ miles from CO to FL in a 40' RV with a 24' tow behind it, and trading every day the market was open. Just got home last night, bloody...

Awesome, thanks! I had a slight inkling that "-20 shares" meant hedging... I still haven't figured out how to structure those correctly, but I'm pretty sure I'll run across it in Hull or Cottle at some point. (Part of what makes this so frustrating and fascinating at the same time is that you...

@Magic - thanks for keeping me humble. Every time I think I'm beginning to understand, it turns out I don't even speak the language. :) Maybe I'm obtuse this morning, but - ~1.3x of what? (If it's premium, then... what's the base value?) And -20 shares per - how do you do that, given that it's...

As someone who grew up in a socialist country, I can assure you that his "degrees" mean less than an ant fart in a Cat 5 hurricane. Proper comrades must have a proper education, therefore the proper university will issue them the proper diploma (Marxist theory is perfectly sufficient to grant...

Yeah, they could go sky-high at any moment.