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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    SNB made CHF 13B in 2011 thanks to gold and the Sept peg. Sehr gut. http://www.snb.ch/en/mmr/reference/pre_20120113/source/pre_20120113.en.pdf Almost makes up for the CHF 19B lost in 2010. :)
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    1.2064 ... yikes.
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So that's great, the SNB is the buyer of last resort for falling-in-value euros which it then trades for euro-denominated paper yielding essentially nothing and that can only fall in value from this point. Outstanding. And what happens to the SNB balance sheet/income statement if German...
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    That paper is denominated in euros, not marks.
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Buying something as it plummets is commonly referred to as knife-catching. It's exactly zero problem for the SNB (just like it was zero problem for Bill Miller to buy FNM on every single dip for 10 years) until one day it is and then Switzerland will find itself running to the IMF.
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    SNB knife-catching plenty of euros this morning.:p Euro buying CHF 1.2090. :eek:
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Better than CFTC data, this site tallies the number of tweets on EURUSD ... http://eurochatter.com/ :)
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Fed transcripts out from 2006. Comedy gold. Ben Appelbaum tweeting as he goes through them ... https://twitter.com/#!/BCAppelbaum
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    now at CHF 1.2088. Curious that this is happening on a day when the euro is shooting higher vs. the dollar. Must be some technical shit. Anyways, central planning fans have their opportunity to short more francs.
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Euro down to CHF 1.2102, now lower than the spike down when Hildy announced his resignation.
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Politics getting interesting in Switzerland http://brucekrasting.blogspot.com/2012/01/whats-next-for-snb-something-important_11.html
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Great article about AMZN. Yes, I have made disparaging comments and made some dollars short the stock after the Kindle announcement run-up, but my negativity was all based on the stock's valuation. It's surely an amazing, disruptive company that is just scratching the surface of what it might...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yes. These sentiment surveys are pretty worthless, except in retrospect. Yes, in any trending market, sentiment will be tilted the way of the trend at the extreme, but that extreme can go for awhile. It only looks smart to fade it in when looking back. Yes, go long the euro. That worked...
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I see a lot of talk about record speculative shorts on the EUR being some sort of contrarian signal. Maybe so, but isn't this measured from CME futures contracts? Exchange-traded futures aren't even a pimple on a pimple of the asshole of the world of fx trading. What's happening at the CME shows...
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Excellent inside baseball on the the Hildy resignation, some there calling it a right wing coup. That faction, of course, had called the 1.20 peg/floor a back-door joining of the euro. "Our goals are not nearly so modest," says the billionaire behind that party when asked if he was satisfied...
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Yes, put up the wrong article, thank you.
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Nice essay from Saft. SNB peg will work great until one day it doesn't, and then it will be a disaster. Thus far, the Swiss policy is almost universally acclaimed as a success. It has been successful; despite continued ructions in the euro zone the cap has not been truly tested. That's not...
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The guy's better at racking up Fast Money appearances than he is at managing money, and owning a plaything of the momo guys (who are having a good time squeezing the shorts in the New Year) won't change that. I'm sure investors in the Tilson Value Fund are thrilled their manager has them in a...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interesting work from Krasting. Calls the peg "Jordan's baby." Thinks he will aggressively defend. The groups against accumulating euros got their scalp in Hildebrand and will sit quiet for awhile before attacking Jordan. FWIW, Jordan is such a technocrat, he makes Tim Geithner look like Steve...
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    These guys know how to stick their fingers in the wind. SNB's foreign currency losses put Hildebrand in a position where he could be forced out for what his wife did (and I'm assuming this sort of insider shenanigans is SOP in Europe). No way Hildy could have been touched by this thing if the...
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