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Actually, I think he's raised the chance to 52% from 48% previously. Expectations were for 51.5%. Please. RBA giving everyone a great chance to short the aussie by leaving rates unchanged. Aussie shot to $1.08 on the news. I'll demure, having too much fun being mostly out of the currency...

Did some work over the weekend and decided it makes no logical sense to own stocks like MSFT and WMT, but not AAPL - which trades with similar metrics, but better growth prospects. I note with some satisfaction that all 3 stocks have performed similarly since the time I bought WMT and MSFT...

Out of euro short for a nice 60 pip gain - enough to take the kids out for oysters and steaks tonight.:cool: I'm not yet ready to commit to a longer-term euro (or aussie) short at the moment but couldn't resist fading that pop on the NFP report.

Selling euros after the NFP beat ...

AUD through $1.07, EUR pushing $1.32 - one day after my return from a long vacation. Coincidence? I think not. Finger getting itchy.:cool:

Ugly earnings report for AMZN. My fears on the Fire (POS device) are coming true. I think the time has come to buy this company. I'll be picking up some shares AH.

Facebook is eating Google's lunch. Whose hide do you think FB's billions in ad revenue is coming out of? GOOG -12% YTD in a wild bull market - it's not a coincidence.

I'm assuming the SNB likes to act in Europe's morning hours? Or will they go anytime?

EURCHF down to $1.2036. Who's selling francs? Post here please.:cool:

Michael Pettis is bearish on the aussie for all the usual reasons, but warns the currency's strength in the face of a clear slowdown in China may have to do with well-to-do Chinese - seriously worried about social unrest - spiriting as much of their capital off of the mainland as possible...

Laying on a beach for the last 2 weeks. The guy has had a good run for 3 weeks in 1 stock, and all of a sudden he's Bernard Baruch? Please. You diminish yourself with your silliness. Do keep posting when you're shorting euros. You've proven an excellent contrary indicator.

Wondering if Japan turning into a chronic trade deficit nation (officially beginning with tonight's report) will be the catalyst for a break in yen and the JGB market. I see the dollar is up more than a full yen today - which it never does unless there is an intervention.

Loving the action in AUD and EUR. Can't wait to get back and get back trading again! :cool:

Jeebus, couldn't get through the first couple of paragraphs. Is it another one of those articles about the decline of the manufacturing sector in the U.S., the horrors of technology and globalization? Is Tom Friedman (let's take one person's experience and extrapolate it to explain the...

yes, please revise title of this thread.

I expect such arguments from politicians. Those metrics have zero to do with the exchange rate. Even if they did, I don't necessarily agree with them. Ireland had wonderful fiscal metrics and then went broke almost overnight when the debts of its banking system were brought onto its balance...

Um ok, yeah $2, but not before hitting $0.75 first.:)

Chovanec ... Real real estate investment growth in China was 20% in 2011. If it goes to 0 in 2012 (and signs are it's doing just that), China GDP growth goes to 6.6% - hard landing territory, and that's not even taking into account the knock-on effects in other industries...

Speaking more to that point, Europe may be 2011's news. Friday's downgrades, the increased likelihood of a hard Greek default, Portugal heading into Greece territory, and the unraveling of the Irish "success" story aren't moving the meter a bit. Folks can keep covering their eyes, but the ECB...

Yes, hence the massive worldwide rally in risk assets. Old, old news.