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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Got a big kick out of this tweet. https://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge/status/174596316763136003 I'm trying to figure out a scenario where tomorrow's LTRO number is bearish for the euro, and I can't. The only tradable thing I can think of is a big move higher on the back of a big LTRO take-up...
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Got a big kick out of this tweet. https://twitter.com/#!/zerohedge/status/174596316763136003 I'm trying to figure out a scenario where tomorrow's LTRO number is bearish for the euro, and I can't. The only tradable thing I can think of is a big move higher on the back of a big LTRO take-up...
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hmmm, Ireland to hold referendum on new EU fiscal treaty. The euro dives. So fascism = euro positive; Democracy = euro negative. Got it.
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Chinese copper hijinks. Turns out companies are pledging the same copper to multiple banks in return for loans. Who could've thought?:p http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2012/02/28/900711/a-little-case-of-copper-collateral-double-counting/ Copper $4/lb. LOL.
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Again, it goes against everything in the human mind, but don't forget your Buffett. If WMT (let's give MSFT a break) continues to run its business over the next 10-15 and make profits as I expect, I should literally pray for the stock to go to $45 and just stay there for the entire time. The ROI...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I don't read a whole lot of the rest of ET, but agree with your assessment that sentiment is getting a bit frothy regarding dividend payers. Sharply higher interest rates would certainly cool the heck out of that sort of talk, but it would cool the heck out of non-dividend payers as well. The...
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    So you're saying buying MSFT at 50X earnings and buying MSFT at 10X earnings (just using Mister Softee as an example, mind you) has no bearing on what one's future return might be? :confused:
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Buffett's buy of CTB. Pretty fair investment ... http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/2012/02/when-you-think-you-made-great-purchase.html
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Still a bitter little man. Chill out a bit, partner. I'm sure FF will sell off to 99.55 at some point this year and then you can contribute a useful trade (like sinking your net worth into the hope they'll bounce back to 99.65).
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    This fails to take into account price, which, uh, is somewhat important. Microsoft was a profit machine in 2000, but it sold at 50X earnings; it was a profit machine in 2011, but sold at 10X earnings. Returns from 2011 on are essentially mathematically guaranteed to be far greater from 2011-2022...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Buffett's annual letter this year is one of his best, and I've read most all of them. http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2011ltr.pdf "We should wish for IBM's stock to languish throughout the (next) 5 years." Incredibly powerful concept here that flies in the face of everything...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    As long as we're on SA stories ... http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/163821:D
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Euro in LoBogala - short at 1.33 rode down to 1.30 than right back to 1.33. Stop taken out. Now flat. Will fight another day.
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Can someone tell the euro stocks have been headed down since the Greek "rescue"? K. Thanks. On a serious note, I believe the euro's strength this week has much to do with the absurd leak that the ECB is going to be a little tighter with policy than expected. That should work at well, given...
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Awaiting word from Tilson that he's shorting Netflix again.:p http://bubblecrunch.tumblr.com/post/18077432186/netflix-rip-good-times
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The yen continues to fall dollar/yen at 8 month high without the MOF doing a thing. Consensus seems to be growing that there has been a real policy change at the BOJ. http://scottgrannis.blogspot.com/2012/02/japan-gets-serious-about-fighting.html The key will be seeing how the yen does...
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Eh, just covered that extra short I put on last night. Fading these Greek rallies is yesterday's move - markets have moved on. LTRO still rules the day and I expect risk will do just fine until Feb. 29. For the moment, risk on = rally in euro. No need to fight it right here.
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Just shorted more euros - cost myself about 50-60 pips by taking the kids away for the long weekend. There is no question I would have shorted euros even before taking a leak upon waking this morning had I been home. Vacations can be a lot more expensive that just the cost of the room and the...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interesting take on Apple's supposed "undervaluation." It lobbied for and was successful in an accounting rule change which allows it to book sales and profits for certain products faster than it used to. It appears to have had a material effect on its earnings reports...
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    No chatter about winners please. I lift my head off the bed (nasty flu) to see risk rallying over news the ECB is quickly swapping its old Greek paper for new. It's about as clear a sign as you'll ever get that Greece is about to default (probably Monday) I would think. Unless the rally is...
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