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  1. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Isn't there a group on this thread that's short the krone? Congrats go out today after that unexpected rate cut. Oysters and steaks tonight! https://twitter.com/#!/finansakrobat/status/179916544938221568/photo/1
  2. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Treasurys finally getting the news that the world isn't ending. Ugly. TLT might be down 10% YTD before week's end.
  3. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    My ML broker set it up for me. I'm not buying Metka just yet.
  4. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I saw a great line somewhere today (can't remember where) that LinkedIn is one Facebook press release from becoming Monster Worldwide (i.e. stock decimated). I'm an owner of Zillow since the New Year. Not counting my chickens, as it's a high multiple, high vol stock that can move 20% for...
  5. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Amazon ... things starting to get ugly. Growth is slowing (and mostly uneconomic) in physical stuff, so it needs to shift to digital media. Trouble is, Apple is the gorilla there (followed by Google, now Microsoft). As anyone who has used a Kindle Fire (and I experimented with one as soon as it...
  6. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Interesting stuff from Paul Graham (go to #5) re: Apple. http://paulgraham.com/ambitious.html Apple's revenues may continue to rise for a long time, but as Microsoft shows, revenue is a lagging indicator in the technology business
  7. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Like Greece, it really takes intense research of individual names for Italy. I'm assuming most of the stock index is made up of crappy old companies - imagine an S&P 500 made up of nothing but shitty banks, stodgy (state-run) utilities, GM, a couple of half-assed retailers, and a few (more or...
  8. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    The motivation of the site (like most financial sites) is to draw eyeballs and ad clicks, not to make its readers money. ZH is great for the entertainment and the research reports and investor letters it gets its hands on that are unavailable anywhere else on the Web. Its twitter feed is the...
  9. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Definitely a better idea to research individual shares instead of the ETF. I expect to be an owner of Metka (Metal Constructions of Greece) before long. Rock-solid balance sheet. Trades at 3.5X earnings. Earns almost all of its income overseas - if the drachma returns, it will continue to earn...
  10. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Also short USDHKD, but not of enough size to affect my speculative account or net worth. Will study to see if it's worth making a significant position. I'm assuming this Tang character has little if any shot at winning the election and the statement is to try and win some votes from the unwashed...
  11. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I was also thinking maybe Bernanke got an advance look and the number was an ugly one, so just wanted to let markets know - inflation be damned - we're ready to rev up QE again and will use some fancy footwork in regards to "sterilization" and "reverse repos" to appease the hawks on the Fed and...
  12. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Hilsenrath sounds like he's backing off his article from a few hours ago ... http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/07/video-jon-hilsenrath-on-bond-buying-program-under-consideration-at-fed/?mod=wsj_share_twitter Fair enough. Point remains that Bernanke felt the need to leak this stuff to...
  13. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    NFLX gets Appleized. https://www.google.com/finance?chdnp=0&chdd=1&chds=1&chdv=1&chvs=Logarithmic&chdeh=0&chfdeh=0&chdet=1331154000000&chddm=391&chls=IntervalBasedLine&q=NASDAQ:NFLX&ntsp=0 iCloud already has 100M users and now will support movies that can be downloaded to any AAPL device...
  14. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    All it took was one down day in the market for the Fed to leak more QE plans. Sheesh. Imagine what these guys might do if stocks go down 10%? http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970204276304577265803925182234.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTWhatsNewsCollection
  15. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Well 1% rates may be low for Germany, just as 0% rates are probably low for Iowa or North Dakota at the moment. Central planning is a tough game. I think a lot of money is flowing into Germany. I'm adding to it by upping my position RWE.
  16. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Easy ECB money is fueling a Spanish/Irish-like RE boom in (formerly) sluggish Germany of all places. Great stuff. http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/0,1518,819255,00.html#ref=rss?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter
  17. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Furthering that point ... http://macromon.wordpress.com/2012/03/05/why-the-yen-is-swan-diving/ Trying to make a distinction between central banks buying government paper to stimulate the economy and buying government paper to finance the deficit. BOJ buys for 2012 will be equal to...
  18. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    I'd love to short it, but that's the trouble with high correlations. If it's just going to be another risk proxy, why bother. Buy shares instead. I believe there's been the stirrings of real policy change in Japan, but these guys always lose their nerve when the financial seas get rough, and...
  19. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Daniel Kahneman on Charlie Rose. Good stuff. http://www.charlierose.com/view/interview/12185
  20. R

    Global Macro Trading Journal

    Vince Reinhart (now at MS, replacing their last incompetent chief economist), ignores the clear writing on the wall and expects more QE, maybe as soon as April. http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/03/05/morgan-stanley-still-expect-qe3-this-year/?mod=wsj_share_twitter
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