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  1. R

    Oil, Bonds, Economy

    You really need to look at the margin. If oil at $3/gallon means it costs $400/month to run your Hummer, the discretionary income loss is $400 minus what it would cost w/oil at, say, $1.80/gallon. In other words, not nearly $400 month. Thus far, there is zero evidence that high oil prices...
  2. R

    Baldwin Blows Out?

    If Baldwin did, in fact, blowout, I want to know about it. As traders, we need to be looking for any edge we can get. If, for instance, Baldy blew out because he's been short bonds during this absurd run-up, that would be some useful information and would help explain the 3 handle move in...
  3. R

    Let's hear your explanation of the "conundrum"

    ^^^ Ever hear of the 87 crash?:eek:
  4. R

    Has anybody ever hedged an ARM by selling Treasury fututes?

    Just wondering. It seems to me it would be possible to create some kind of hedge to do this. ... Thus locking in a rate well below that of whatever the 30 year fixed rate happened to be going for.
  5. R

    Taking it to the next level

    I've been trading interest rate futures part-time for my own account for the last four years. I have averaged an 85% return per year. My account balance is small (around 10-12K). Instead of allowing it to compound, I have been taking money out as I have made it. I now have the confidence...
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