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Steve, Had to chime in with a "me too". This is what I'm seeing in north Florida as well. I too think that if we're not at the bottom, we're close to it. I saw some weakening, but not much to write home about. Now I'm seeing the market tighten up. Rates dropping just a little bit are...

I find there is good correlation with the 10-year treasury. Its also easier for me to track. FWIW, rates have dipped a good bit in the last month or so.

No, the Fed can't force banks to lower it (that I know of). But the FED would lower rates as a RESPONSE to the nightmare scenario that I was responding to. If the prices of housing dropped 20 to 30%, people would "feel" poor and stop spending money. The Fed would short-term lower rates to...

Chiming in...yeah...with all the debt we're carrying, I just don't see how we can have significant deflation. The U.S. has a strong temptation to devalue currency to make debt pay off easier. It just seems that they would be/are constantly monitoring the dollars value looking for any...

Never happen. The Fed would step in and lower rates again long before that. They'd have to do so because of a negative wealth effect choking the economy. I don't believe we'll see anything even close to those price drops on a national basis (i.e,, across the nation). The thinking is too...

Decrease of what? Average Housing prices across the nation? West coast average housing prices? Average sale volume?

I was driving down the road and I had an odd thought. Back in 1995, when I bought my first home, my wife and I paid a whole bunch of points to lower the interest rates. We also timed our lock in really well, so we ended up with a 6.75% fixed interest note. I remember the guy at the law firm...

Yeah, or like when they put them on fixed rate notes, and because interest rates keep going up then rentals are more in demand boosting rents and landlords profits. What are they going to do with all that extra cash flow? That can be a problem.

If ya'll pay close attention to these threads and what I've ready, you'll know that Tallahassee, FL is defying the downtrend. Probably because we didn't participate in the uptrend very much and this place is more like south Georgia than North Florida. Back in 2002 and 2003, I used to count...

Well then just provide the cruxt of the idea. I'm not calling you anything. I understand that quite a few on ET have said it before, and I didn't understand their reasoning either. We all know how accurate the internet is, right? I mean, I understand about money and how it works, the M3...

So you're saying an abundance of dollars (inflation) will lead to a lack of them (depression)? How will that happen again??? Also, you're comparing lenders, advertisers, retailers and pyramid schemers to an army who will take our possessions by force? What if we just exercise a little...

I haven't been following this thread, but have you all noticed that everytime Iran rattles its saber, the cost of oil goes up? They are in the business of selling oil. I think they're just creating tension so they can sell their oil at a higher price. They have no interest in halting the...

July 26 (Bloomberg) -- Nothing has been more important in driving the U.S. economic expansion that began nearly five years ago than housing. It could be just as vital as growth slows. Federal Reserve officials are watching warily to see whether the housing retrenchment that began late last...

Interesting graph. Extrapolating from what I've seen here in North Florida, most of the rents were depressed, and even negative, during the great real estate price run-up from 2003 to late 2005. So, the timeline is probably too long. It would be better data to see how rents have risen over...

Interesting approach. But consider that rents are rising and so are mortgage rates. Except for a recent quick run up in mortgages, I'm seeing the gap closing between rents and house payments. Before, I could not buy a place and rent it out for anywhere close to break even, but that gap is...

Cool attachment. Looking at the dollar index, and expecting a devaluation caused by going off the gold standard, the dollar looks like its where its supposed to be, showing a gradual decrease over time as you'd expect with a fiat money. Folks need to understand that there are disadvantages...

Well, I hunted around to answer my own question and found this link: http://money.cnn.com/2003/10/27/news/economy/home_sales/index.htm It gives an idea of what a proper backlog is. It referred to a 4.3 month backlog as low. Isn't the nation at about a 6 month backlog? I think it still...

That is interesting...foreclosures down but backlog is up. I wonder what a "normal" backlog is? On this thread, I've seen a lot of folks making statements like, "the backlog is 5 times what it was a year ago". Ok, but how did "a year ago" compare to the historical average? How does today...

Remember when I asked the question about whether the worst was over? Still food for thought. (see below) Va. Foreclosures Fall / Numbers Drop 17 Percent From a Year Earlier; the State Ranks 42nd, RealtyTrac Says Source: Richmond Times - Dispatch Publication date: 2006-07-18 By...

Note to self: Don't argue with GTS.