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You need not complicate the definition of random. Random variables are not subjective, they are very well defined mathematically and scientifically. If the only information you had at your disposal were the closing prices of a stock, then the movement of the stock up or down each day is a...

I sense here that many of you realize that there are too many variables to find the deterministic motion of the stock market- ergo perhaps there is some random distribution function which will describe the collective motion of the market. This is very common in science when there are so many...

To bring this thread back to the center, here are four NASDAQ stocks whose number of updays(close to close) over the past 100 days is very low: percent updays LRCX 37% TMPW 37 AAPL 36 LRCX 34 Question: Would this...

For those of you interested in a more analytical discussion of whether the markets are random, take a look at the recent thread entitled Random Trading, posted 8/17/02. http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=7793 In it we concluded that for 102 equities on the NASDAQ markets...

Okay- it appears that 102 data points is enough to satisfy the central limit theorem, so the distribution for coin flips should be well approximated by a gaussian normal. With this is mind then for the NASDAQ data, I computed the mean to be 43.90 so that for 102 points this would give a...

Traden4Alpha- In your last post you showed some data for 100 fair coin toss and compared it with that for my stock data on the number of updays over a 100 day period. Perhaps you would tell us how you arrived at your percentages. They don't look like a binomial distribution to me. Bkuerbs...

We all want to know whether the markets are random. I started this thread trying to think of the markets in terms of coin flips. BKuerbs pointed out that in a 100 tosses of an unweighted coin, one should expect 50 heads with a standard deviation of +-5. Two std. dev. would then be 50 +-10...

Okay BKuerbs, this is what I was looking for. So if I understand this correctly, If I toss a coin 100 times I should expect 50 heads with a standard deviation of about 5. In other words I should see somehthing like 50 heads +- 5. In 10000 tosses I would expect to see 5000 heads +- 50. So...

Okay CalTrader, so what's the answer to my question? If I flip a coin 200 times and it comes up heads only 80 times, whats the error associated with this result. Is this a random result?

________________________________________________ originally posted by Vladiator [b]That kind of depends on what distribution you assume and it's volatility parameter..." __________________________________________________ You've introduced two new terms here, 'distribution' and...

BKuerbs- In a series of 4040 flips you may expect a deviation of around 0.5% That's what I would like to know. Is there a formula for computing the expected deviation for a small sample such as 100 flips.

I would like to pose a question here for those of you familiar with the mathematics of random numbers. I will pose it in terms of coin flipping, but you could easily ask the question in terms of buying and selling equities: If you flip an unweighted coin 100 times, it should come up heads...

TraderBob-check out http://www.investertech.com You can screen for just about anything there. Delayed or 5 minute real time.

Do any of you use P&F charts for intraday trading. If so, let's hear what software you use for the charts and how you like it.

Check out http://www.investertech.com They have real time scanning on a daily or intraday basis, plus real time Java charts. There is definetly a steep learning curve for this site, but once you get the hang of it, it's pretty nifty. I use it for 5 minute intraday scans to fins SAR...

I tried traderbot several weeks ago hoping they would have the gap trade setup. In there power search, all I could find was a search for gaps starting from the open, not from any point during the day. Has this changed since I last looked?

Since we are on the subject of scanning-anyone have a good site for intraday stock scanning. I am looking for ways to find stocks that show up(or down) gaps during the day on a 5 or 10 minute chart.

Buklkowsi typically has about 100 or more data points for each pattern. The error in his analysis would then be the inverse square root of 100 or about 10%. I can live with this.

For those interested in the success rate and failure rate of about 50 different chart patterns, take a look at "Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns" by Thomas N. Bulkowski ISBN 0471295256 While the book was written for swing traders, I use the patterns described for day trading. It's my bible.

I have mentioned this a number of times before- There is a site which is devoted to multimonitor displays. It is http://www.realtimesoft.com/ Here you will find a database of just about every video card combination that others have used along with descriptions of the problems they have...