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There's no doubt that the broken trades scenario is not the norm, but that's not my point. I simply use it as an analogy to illustrate the concept of potential profits versus real profits that have been deposited in one's account, and to show how they are indeed NOT one and the same. Focus...

See my last post about the broken Dow mini trades for a perfect example of what I'm getting at about it not being your money until it's deposited in your account. I certainly agree that it is dangerous to change parameters based on previous trades and whether they worked out or not. Where we...

You're missing the point about the analogy. Let's forget cars altogether. Your mention of the Dow mini snafu is a perfect example. There were traders who were convinced those profits were their money, only to discover the trades were broken and in fact it was never their money to begin with...

OK, let's break it down. It's the house's money because while in a trade, whatever "profits" one has are not your money until you close out the trade and the money is actually in your account, and not just on paper. Here's a perfect analogy. Let's say I know a guy who will sell me his car for...

No offense taken. But how am I wrong? Perhaps you would care to share how your strict money theory fits into your real world trading? Please elaborate.

Actually, where someone enters a trade is extremely relevant, since it marks the point where one makes money or loses money, and is significant if for no other reason than as a reference for stop loss management. And there is indeed a difference in practical real world terms between losing...

As far as keeping profit while staying in a trade, I do it by selling half positions. For instance, I shorted as the 30 year originally broke 118, with my initial stop at break even. As it moved down, I moved a stop for half my position down, and kept the rest at break even. As it turned out...

Good points, Doc. And congrats to any fellow shorts who have managed to stay short thus far.

Sounds like someone's taking his toys and going home...:(

Almost got stopped out of my remaining half short position, but fortunately the 118 level which was previously support held perfectly as resistance. No change in my stop, we'll see what happens.

No covering here. Still short after the break below 118. Stop on half my position moved to 117 to lock in profit, remaining half left at break even.

Yes, a close below 118 is a much more solid indicator of breaking support. So far so good.

As I mentioned in an earlier post, I have no current position. I'm waiting for a break below 118 to confirm a retracement, in which case I'll go short with a break even stop and a target of 112 to 113. If it can't break 118, I'd wait for a break above the high of 123 to go long. For me, until...

I was a moderator 'cause I'm such a nice guy :p

As far as bonds go, I'm only trading the 30 year T-bond. I'm admittedly much better versed in the world of equities and options, but I use my well honed chart reading and stop management skills to good effect so far in the bond world. Right now I'm just sitting and waiting for one of the two...

You're right, my mistake. No inversion currently. But I swear I just saw something recent that mentioned a short term yield that was higher than a longer term maturity. I'll have to try and dig up where I saw it.

True. It's probably not a good idea to talk in generalizations, as there is always a scenario in which this or that could happen. In the current situation, however, it seems to me that the next substantial move downward in the stock market will not be accompanied by bonds moving down in any...

Let me ask you this. If the stock market crashed tomorrow (NOT because of terrorism), what do you think would happen to bonds?

First, we had an inverted yield curve in 2000, I don't know what you're talking about that we didn't have one in over a decade. Second, yes, I misspoke about the inversion right now. I was looking at an old cached page that had old data on it for the shorter term maturities, and I don't...

It's hard to be bearish on bonds at the moment, because things are so out of whack. We have an inverted yield curve, we have bonds making a huge runup concurrently with stocks, when traditionally they perform inversely, and we have the Fed continuing to cut rates. Now here's the question. At...