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Agreed. This is as juicy an opportunity as I've seen in a long time. If you don't have the stomach to short the futures, buy the put options on the futures.

For the same reason the PPT can only forestall certain drops in the stock market, but not out and out cataclysmic selloffs. If you've got the nerve and the cash reserves to withstand a short term move against you (since it's impossible to pick the exact top), this is the mother of all...

That's pretty much what I'm doing, not taking any crazy overleveraged positions all at once. Something nice and manageable. :cool:

Don't forget to include the stock bubble that preceded the others. But yep, America has become the land of the rolling bubbles. And this one will end just the same as the others.

It's true, the guy is one of the most uncanny contrarian indicators. We'll truly know the bottom is in when he turns bearish. :D

May have some more upside, but looking at the parabolic rise in the chart the past month reminds me a lot of the parabolic blow off we saw with oil. Fortunately, I've got enough cash to play with to keep a fairly wide stop. We'll see how it goes.

Feels like a blow off top to me. I'm looking at scaling into a short position in this area.

Who cares whether the market rallies or falls? Just trade what you see, not what you want to see happen. 3pm to the close today will be the money time. With this kind of market action today, I'd expect to see either a hard selloff into the close that will be good for some nice points on the...

I read a little more of J.S. Kim's writings, and it is an example of what I was talking about with regard to getting several different points of view. While some of his predictions were correct, others were either off or premature (depending on how you look at it). For instance, in his April...

A brief look suggests that Kim's outlook has been very good so far. Of course, that's no guarantee of future accuracy. My suggestion is to read as many different sources as you can that have called the current environment accurately and make up your own mind. For instance, some that I read...

It comes down to this IMO. Can the Fed/government actually reverse a true deflation? History says no. Every deflation in history was unable to be overcome by fiscal policy, each one had to run its natural course before coming to an end. Will this time be different? Who knows, but my gut...

I'd be very careful re: expectations, at least medium to long term. Short term anything's possible for a day or two. For your consideration: I've been studying the chart of the Dow during the period of 1929-1933 and seeing how what we've been going through this year has mirrored that. Thus...

Doesn't matter, both of you are bottom picking fools. Why bother wasting time making a distinction between the two of you, since you've both been as wrong as wrong can be? Now THAT'S the funny part. :D

Please stop trying to pick bottoms. No one should try, and you're particularly bad at it as bottom pickers go anyway.

I love these time capsule threads, where you can go back and see what a raging buffoon these guys who tried to call bottoms in stocks and markets were. Absolutely classic! :D

So what's the inevitable endgame here? A similar prolonged Japanese style deflationary slump that lasts years?

Of course no one knows for sure, but I'm skeptical of this time around simply being a rerun of the '70s, if for no other reason than the systemic problems plaguing us now are unparalleled in our history in terms of scope and size, and certainly much different from the issues that led to...

Well said. We can't know for sure when the deflation will turn to raging inflation, and gold may still fall some more before that happens. But I have to think averaging into a long position, even if it moves lower in the immediate future, will pay off handsomely sometime over the next few...

If this is true, why didn't the Bank of Japan do it? They've languished in deflation for over a decade despite doing all the things we're looking at doing here, including slashing rates to 0, massive liquidity injections, government spending programs, etc.

Yes, in hindsight there are plenty of stocks that went on big "rides". But it means nothing if you weren't lucky enough to have picked that stock and gotten in (and stayed in) for the ride. Which brings us back to the lottery.