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And he's early again. While you are correct that deflation is still the biggest concern over the next couple of years, it is still very possible that we get a temporary outburst of inflationary pressure this year that could send gold to new highs, before the next deflationary wave hits...

Nah, it's just a classic "move the fences" tactic. Bottom line, any time someone attempts to make such iron clad predictions, you can be sure that the market gods will see to it they are made to look like fools first...such predictions are truly the stuff of amateur hour.

Prechter's macro calls have always been spot on, his timing has tended to be suspect from time to time. I have no doubt whatsoever we will see what Prechter is calling for. But before then I would look for the market to remain irrational longer than most expect, or can remain solvent...

Like GS was going to melt down going into earnings? :D

Is this belief more or less strong than your call on GS? :eek:

Anyone who trades or makes sweeping prognostications based on one single indicator is a fool. VIX/VXO is a valuable indicator, but only when considered in conjunction with other indicators, such as corporate insider buying vs. selling, public sentiment, etc. And even then, a bunch of...

Well, it's not possible anymore for them to do like Nixon did, who took the USD off the final vestige of a gold standard. Clearly, since we're already off the gold standard, what are "they" going to do? Likewise, because we are no longer on a gold standard, there is no incentive for the...

Because eventually if enough traders demand physical delivery of their gold contracts, and the banks don't have the physical gold available to deliver, the Comex goes into default, and then all hell breaks loose. That's the beauty of gold, no matter how many paper dollars central banks may...

I believe Surf's call was probably based on his expectation that dealer banks, and by extension central banks, through their naked shorting and other manipulation in the metal paper markets, would drive the prices down. Yet clearly the demand for physical gold and silver is swamping that...

Yeah, I guess the Fed committing to printing $1 trillion in new cash and shoving it into the system will do that, LOL! :D

I'm still here. Definitely a big time long term bull. Short term, we'll probably have continued consolidation and pullback, although I'm focusing the majority of my buying on silver at this point. Loading up the boat on any continued weakness.

While I agree that we may well see a very short term pullback for gold and silver, I see the USD preparing for a major drop. The dollar index is currently completing a double top and has been unable to break above its credit crisis highs. Although if you're right and silver dropped to $10 or...

IMO silver is the place to be, even moreso than gold. When gold and silver hit their previous highs in 1980, silver topped out around $50/oz. Given that the inflationary actions building up now are many times greater than they were then (and global to boot), just to get back to its previous...

Good times indeed (if you're holding precious metals and mining stocks, that is) :D . Although I do expect a healthy pullback from these levels, but it will just be an opportunity to add to a long position for the next leg up.

Looks like we'll have to agree to disagree on this one, and let time reveal which of us turned out to be right...:cool:

Gold is also a safe haven in uncertain times as well, no one is arguing that. But I stand by my assertion that it is also signaling coming inflation.

Actually, it did signal inflation, as FDR ended up confiscating gold and taking us off the gold standard because he knew that he couldn't print all the money he needed for his New Deal programs if the money was still tied to it. So yes.

I disagree. Gold's rise is signaling in advance that inflation, not deflation is going to be the big issue this year. In fact, I would argue that gold's strength so far (and going forward) is almost entirely based on fundamentals. With governments and central banks around the world printing...

But if less dollars are exported, that means less dollars available by foreign creditors to purchase the out of control debt needs the U.S. government is incurring. Which then further inspires the need for interest rates to rise to attract enough buyers of the debt. Ah, but there are three...

Price.