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  1. V

    Interesting signs of a real bottom in the bear market

    Last week a cabdriver in NYC asked me what stocks he should short.
  2. V

    delta-neutral trading

    Why not wait until the VIX hits either its upper bollinger band or lower bollinger band. If it hits the upper band: sell puts and sell calls with the same strike price and expiration date on QQQ if it hits the lower band: buy puts and buy calls with the same strke and expiration...
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    the trend is up, market has bottomed.

    The dollar is probably not near a bottom but there is reason to believe that both the Bank of Japan and the ECB will intervene to make sure that a landing is soft. I agree that the S&P earnings estimate for '02 is not proven out yet. In fact, that estimate is back-end loaded in the Q3 and...
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    the trend is up, market has bottomed.

    I am going to weigh in on the bull side once and for all. Although i think there are pockets of the market that are still grossly overvalued (AMAT, BRCD, NEM) and although the momentum is clearly bearish I do think we are at a bottom. a. the dollar weakening is actually good for the stock...
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    Your top 3 stock picks if you had to go long

    INVN. A. $7.50/share in cash ($122M) B. No debt. C. Projected EPS: $2.50 (extremely conservative) D. They make the machines that screen for bombs in airports. Every airport is required to have 100% screening by Dec. 31. They have the contract. E. Huge maintenance fees each year all...
  6. V

    POLL: Market Close Tomorrow ??? (responses up until 1 hour into trading)

    I dont think this is similar to Japan at all. A. Japan's corruption went all the way to the Prime Minister. In the US, Enron actually went out of business, as will WCOM, and Dennis Kozlowski is going to jail. Bush is not protecting him which is what happened in Japan. B. Japanese...
  7. V

    Now We Really Bottomed !!!!!

    FWIW, most analysts think the EPS of the S&P will be between $55-58. If you take out tech the number goes much higher so it can be argued that the S&P, without tech, is undervalued. But as we saw in 1999, fundamentals don't matter.
  8. V

    POLL: Market Close Tomorrow ??? (responses up until 1 hour into trading)

    since nobody is posting any actually numbers and it is 3 in the morning, i have nothing to lose by being specific: Dow close: 8800 Nasdaq close: 1390 S&P close: 950 I don't think there will be any great rallies tomorrow. I think the massive short covering rallies have already occurred. I...
  9. V

    the trend is up, market has bottomed.

    Note that the Russell 2000 index closed positive on Friday.
  10. V

    Warren Buffet expects US to be nuked.

    Magna wrote >>As I mentioned earlier, since the losses on 9/11 Buffet's holding company Berkshire Hathaway has a clause for all policies excluding damages caused by nuclear, chemical and biological attack. _________ Since the losses, BRK has changed the policy. Although, for this year his...
  11. V

    Adlae

    it seems like there are plenty of other things to bottom feed on than the absolute worst POS out there. Nobody has any idea what that balance sheet really entails and how much the Rigas family ultimately left to be divided up betw shareholders and debtholders. Better bottomfeeding socks IMO...
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    Warren Buffet expects US to be nuked.

    Of course Buffett is going to say nuclear attack is a certainty. It has nothing to do with his portfolio or crazy puts he might've bought. The man is, at heart, an insurance salesman. If you are building a 100 story building he wants you to call him about nuclear attack insurance. And he is...
  13. V

    Savings

    why not wait until QQQ hits 10 before starting that?
  14. V

    Savings

    why not high yielding beaten down preferred stocks like AES_pc and MIR_pa? You can short the underlying common to lock in the yield.
  15. V

    Is it possible for a new trader to survive in this market

    I think its important to realize that even in a bear market you can make more money going long than short. The days with the largest increases usually occur in a bear market because of oversold conditions plus a drastic increase in volatility compared to a bull market.
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    Funding a hedge fund...

    He could mean a number of things but here is my guess: when you start your hedge fund you are creating a company that may or may not have value in the future. For instance, ten years from now if you have $1B in assets and maybe you are running multiple hedge funds with one management company you...
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    my story

    I had always been interested in the stock market but never had any money until 1999. The few times before 1999 that I had put money into the stock market was when I bought a 100 shares of T. Boone Pickens company in October 1987, the day before the crash, and when I bought 100 shares of Intel in...
  18. V

    A Catastrophe Plan

    I think the best strategy is one which makes money in either a disaster or a "normal" environment but one which anticipates disaster (such as the environment we are in). Also, as opposed to going short, I prefer to find strategies which can potentially triple my money, regardless of if a...
  19. V

    Staying in longer

    Read any book about Buffett. As he says, his holding period is "forever". I know, I know, traders hate Buffett. Whatever.
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