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Adjusted to our situation: "If you know exactly what to do if what can happen does happen then we never get in trouble." Ivo

Yep, I had that annotated as well. This BO came just a little quicker than the BO of the big channel. regards, Ivo

Worked out well but it was a little tricky for me. Increasing red followed by BO and increasing black. I really think it is only possible to take this trade when it is obvious that 11:05 is going to be increasing red (based on PRV) and it's going to breakout. (of course YM helps-->pennant BO...

Chart for today. Regards, Ivo

chart for the morning. IMO we just had change. Ivo

IMO we never really left the 11:30 lateral. There were actually 4-5 trades from one side to the other side. Every time the lateral was broken price bounced back the next bar. regards, Ivo edit: Annotations are not complete. Just trying to point out the lateral

+4 so far, almost 50% of high minus low, lol. Will continue the last hour. regards, Ivo

Today's eurodollar trade. The 6 o clock bar was first increasing black indicating the trend had changed from down to up (in other words a point 2-->3 move was out of the picture). This could only be changed if that same bar turned into a spike bar which it did. Needless to say all this went very...

I was thinking about the second "incorrect analysis" as it was happening. 1. I was surprised by high bar range (3 points) in comparison to the low volume we had. I would expect much more volume here. (>30 K). Before we had much higher volume for 3 points moves.. We know change can come...

Here is how I saw this period on YM. White channel broken on decr. volume. two bars in a row decreasing red. 11:06 and 11:08 Decreasing red while making new lows in the channel. We have anticipation of change because price can only go down in a downtrend on increasing volume, not on...

Chart for the afternoon. I started around 14:00 It's funny: When I know what's going on I am completely comfortable letting price go even 2,5 points against my position. I'm not saying it's the best thing to do and I need to work on it. After all entry price could have been much better...

Hi, In this case price closed within the previous bar...Lateral movement. regards, Ivo

Thank you. I think because the black channel was broken on decreasing black just the 8:45 bar being broken (->price going back down) is enough reason/signal to go short again and to not expect a point 3 up. No need to wait for increasing red. (Although of course it does have to happen...

I think it was a general question. How can price move from point 2 to point 3? regards, Ivo

Here basically the same situation as yesterday. (eurodollar futures) 8:30 we get change. Everything fine after that: decreasing black towards RTL 8:45 decreasing volume and decreasing volatility. Anticipate change. 8:50 previous bar is taken out on the low. So we do have change. One can...

Sure. You signalled change. Still the question remains: Since we had a breakout on increasing red volume (regardless of the chubby tape before that) can a point 3 down be expect? (either a steeper one or a fanned out chubby tape = channel) I saw the chubby tape and I saw the VE, I saw the...

Sure but we trade the 5 minute fractal. While expecting a point 3 down it is completely acceptable for the chubby tape to be broken right before the point 3 is formed. Can you imagine if I would try to trade every chubby tape break... However, increasing black is not acceptable of course...

Sure, but change doesn't have to be change for me if I decide to hold for point 3 if I expect one. The discussion was not if we had change or not. The question was if a point 3 down still could be expected. Ivo

Well, I also expected to fan but not if I had noticed the increasing volume. Increasing black volume with a downtrend still intact only happens on spike bar, lateral BO or steeper RTL break. None of this was the case. Of course what can happen is a shallow upchannel (incr. black) ending...

For sure I will never forget this happened today. I thought I made all mistakes already but now it seems I'm starting again from zero... "Oh well, I just missed the increasing black..". It's the first thing we look at, is it increasing or decreasing? Just hilarious :) Sorry for wasting...