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  1. M

    Simulators

    Auditrack or any other simulator is good for testing models to see if they have a sound basis, but if you haven't traded what you're trying to papertrade the results will always look rosy. I don't have any statistics to back it up, but I think a reasonable rule of thumb would be to expect...
  2. M

    Emini trading!

    Tri-Pack, Taking a swing at someone will get you a fine for disorderly conduct. I wouldn't consider these fines a bad thing. If you work on a trading floor long enough, sooner or later you're going to take a swing at someone or someone's going to take a swing at you. Or at least the...
  3. M

    soybeans

    Kicking, If you like, I can send you a list of 10 brokers besides myself that I would trust to handle a friend or family member's account. As to your second question, limit moves are what they are, and if you trade futures, they are a risk. The only way to completely avoid the risk would...
  4. M

    soybeans

    JayS, I'm actually glad to see retail FX trading in the US finally come under regulatory jurisdiction. It gives it a measure of respectability. Previously, retail FX traders were taking a blind risk that the company they were trading through would be there tomorrow, now they can trade...
  5. M

    6 yr Veteran trader looking...

    wcom, You got a big grin from me too. Matt Shelley
  6. M

    soybeans

    o 2 b, The active contract now is the 'lean' hogs, and they are cash settled, so delivery isn't a worry. To Arizona: It's a high risk form of investing. Take your time learning about and getting into these markets. Mistakes can be very painful. I would recommend that you go to the...
  7. M

    Fair Value and Futures

    Trader, Because it can be mind numbingly boring. You're either busy, or fighting to keep from nodding off. Most people don't realize that working in just one market has the drawback of having absolutely nothing to do when the market is quiet. It's the reason why so many trading floor...
  8. M

    Fair Value and Futures

    Don, My point is that the arbitrageurs will keep the relationship between the two so tight that there won't be any discrepancies that could provide any clues as to market direction. Also, when the arbitrageurs trade, they wouldn't normally trade all 500 stocks. They would trade what's...
  9. M

    Fair Value and Futures

    Don and Vinigar, I've never understood why the difference between cash and futures (basis) would be of any interest to anyone other than someone who does arbitrage between the two. I used to be an arbitraguer and we'd fight for a tick. No room for an outside trader to glean information...
  10. M

    How much speed do you need?

    I use a tracing program called Neotrace to check my routes. You can get a copy from http://www.cybergeography.org (which is a really interesting site anyway).
  11. M

    Options on futures, any good broker recommendations

    Stevet, They're tolerable, but we don't get any favors out of that option pit. You have to do size to get any sort of tight market out of there. All of the small scared money that used to provide liquidity for the small orders seems to have migrated to the e-mini futures contract.
  12. M

    Options on futures, any good broker recommendations

    I agree with a lot of what people have to say in this thread, but I have three bones to pick: 1. There are no "market makers" in the strict definition in the futures markets. There are brokers, and there are locals. 'Market maker' is a stock market term for someone who gets an exclusive on...
  13. M

    Will SSF's replace Options for hedging?

    Don, I don't know that 'juice' is a fair characterization. Anymore than it would be fair for me to call margin interest in a stock account 'juice'. The word carries a negative connotation. The 'juice' you speak of is simply a pricing in of the opportunity cost (read interest rate) of tying...
  14. M

    Will SSF's replace Options for hedging?

    They have they potential to be another vehicle for hedging, whether they'll be a replacement remains to be seen. Currently you can create a synthetic futures position in the options by buying an at the money call and selling an at the money put against it, or vice versa. In theory you should...
  15. M

    How much speed do you need?

    A dsl would be fine for the individual home or small business. If you get past 5 users consider a fractional T-1 or another dsl. A full T-1 or T-3 would either be hunting a mouse with a shotgun, or a tank.
  16. M

    How much will be my maximal loss on a $2600 IB futures account

    Stevet, Yes I am a trader, and I come from a trading family. I've heard about trading and managing risk all my life around the dinner table, but I still had to have the markets teach me a very harsh lesson before I understood. Fortunately all it cost me was half my account and a one year...
  17. M

    How much will be my maximal loss on a $2600 IB futures account

    Stevet, Reading what you've posted about taking your leverage to the hilt runs chills down my spine. It may have worked so far, but the day it doesn't may be your last day as a trader. When I was much younger I used to do this, "Why not make as much money as possible?", then one day I...
  18. M

    IB LOGIN problems today

    If UUNET has problems, it causes all sorts of havoc as they're one of the legs of the tripod that makes up the primary sonnet ring of the entire internet. I'm sure that IB has backup connections, but they don't help much if the entire internet has a hiccup. I'm told that they recommend that...
  19. M

    How much will be my maximal loss on a $2600 IB futures account

    I would have to say that maximum leverage is the road to ruin for both the trader and the brokerage house. Lightning bolts come out of the blue all the time and if you get struck while maxed out, you are an ex-trader. It also increases the risk of unsecured debits which can take down a...
  20. M

    Soybean and derivatives....

    Well, I've got some cocoa, a coffee bag, oatmeal, a couple of Canadian dollars, always a couple of oranges, and a wooden ruler to represent lumber. Also a little clay piggie and a cow with a baby cowbell. I wear the silver. My wheat stalks never survive the whole year and I have to replace...
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