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Let's see how yen behaves after the housing data. Japan and China have been rising last week based on US housing improving. That appears not to be the case today, so I expect yen to strengthen and China and Japan equity markets to drop this week, and China could drop bigtime as it is already...

IMHO, housing is going to get much much worse in the next 2-3 years, but certainly this Spring will be awful. There is a glut from existing homes and news homes, plus foreclosures. And prices are still too high making the situation even worse. As prices drop in a panic, consumers will tapped out...

Excellent post. Without patience (to wait for trading signal, whatever you use) and discipline (to execute only the signals, and with consistency), I doubt one could succeed at this job. I probably talk about patience and discipline everyday as they are difficult to master with so much media...

i suspect the kind of rally we had yesterday was shorts covering. Why? because with all the issues going on with subprimes, growth slowing etc. institutions would not be buying so agressively unless they were removing hedges (shorts). This was not a bottom but a pullback and a small one since...

Would be great if you could tell the newbies what your insights are instead of offering nothing. ET is where many (including myself) come to share ideas and to learn (a lifelong pursuit!). Let's hear from you and your experienced learnings http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/

rally will continue in Asia and Europe as they "catch up" with US! It seems the equity markets have now diverged from the yen influence present since late February. The rally here has maybe just a bit more (if at all) and then we go down. I still think intermediate trend is down and today was...

My humble opinion is today was a short covering rally. Most blogs and newsletters were very bearish before the Fed statement and I assume they took bearish positions to close afterwards. Well, when that happens, no one is left to short AFTER the statement so the covering starts and takes a life...

Tim has been bearish for quite a while, and he has gotten some great big bearish moves, but invariably he is going to be wrong now and then. This has nothing to do with Tim, it is a fact of trading. I have been bearish since January and had to go through a great deal of doubt for most of...

what I think is more important is that the next time Shanghai sells off, it's gonna be bigger and better (for shorts) than anything we have seen so far. These speculators in China just keep coming back for more. At some point they are going to be extinguished for good, Olympics or no Olympics...

I think what is going to be important is the volumes at the end of the day and whether we close near the highs. Today is Monday after quadruple witching, so I normally have no idea what is going on, what funds are buying/selling options etc. Better picture will emerge maybe tomorrow and after...

the minority cause fluctuations in "quiet" markets e.g. July 2006 to Feb 2007. i.e. people keep buying at regular intervals and so market goes up in almost uniform, up, then pause (pullback), then up, then pause etc. but when there is panic/fear, the majority cause market movement as they...

too true. If there were no business cycles and recessions etc. how else would people "buy low, sell high"? But especially for traders these ups and downs bring excellent opportunities to "play both side" and maximize profits by shorting/going long. Only trick is: you have to be on the correct...

IntercontinentalExchange® (NYSE: ICE) operates the leading global, electronic marketplace for trading both futures and OTC energy contracts. CME is the largest futures exchange in the United States and also owns and operates the largest futures Clearing House in the world. CME products fall...

As yen strengthens, the Nikkei will keep getting crushed and we too in the US will see our markets drop. For Japan, it's all about a stronger currency making exports expensive for foreign buyers. For US it's all about the carry traders selling US assets to repay the yen they borrowed to do...

Divergence. During the day I might try scalping, but my scalping can last 15-30 minutes, I never go for frequent frenzied daytrading. If I scalp 2-3 times a day that's fine, and if I find a swing trade then I am better off not scalping. Anyway, I watch for divergence between price and an...

I am already seeing reports that subprime issues and concerns have abated and that is why the markets are up today and yesterday. Can you imagine these issues going away within just a few days? They took years to build up and I think they will take 2-5 yrs to work off. Today's inflation numbers...

as I have been saying this morning and yesterday, the put call ratios are way way too high and when those puts are closed, the markets will shoot up very fast and furious aka bear or short squeeze. These can be brutal so better to watch out for them than be caught in the middle...

we'll probably sell some more today, but I am on the lookout for a rally into options expiration. there are so many open put positions that are in fat profits and I think when people start covering those it will cause a rally. I am not saying such a rally will last, just saying there will be a...

for traders I think it is SP500, but for general public investors and media, it is Dow30. Everyone knows the Dow on the street, no one knows the SP500, yet it is a better measure of the market. http://lauristonletter.blogspot.com/

I am starting to get worried here after riding the bear side today. I think too many people are loaded into puts (high put/call ratios) and also loaded in short ETFs like QID (just look at the volumes). Soon there will be a counter action from bargain hunters and the markets will easily record...