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I found that definition, too. I guess I need a horsey-ducky translation ... what is the purpose of these contracts?

The CME provides "Last Day" futures on the energies. Can anyone provide an explanation of what they are, and how they differ from the standard contracts? Here is a description of the one for Crude Oil...

In Murphy's first book on Intermarket Analysis, he made a strong case for sustainable market relationships. Years later he published his second book on Intermarket Analysis where he introduced the term "decoupling".

I thought hedgers were closing their positions as EFP's. In this case, I would think that calculating a daily return or P&L as if they were speculating is not appropriate. Am I completely off base here?

Correlation is a useful analysis technique but it isn't a trading strategy by itself.

Mav is holding out ... that chart doesn't show his moon cycles.

If you think of coal as being in the Metals/Mining category along with copper, silver, etc. instead of the Energy category, those other mining products don't have long dated forward curves either.

Any thoughts about why we don't have a forward curve for coal futures with similar liquidity as NG and CL?

I guess I was thinking more about NG than the energy markets you referenced. The prompt months in NG are quite impacted by near term supply/demand dynamics. The oil complex could be different.

Interesting point. Would it be fair to say these differences are most observed in the prompt months, where supply & delivery factors are most pronounced? Perhaps the expectations for the back months of the curve, beyond the prompt year, are not too different.

I suffer mild eye strain after looking at my monitor for hours. I don't know if this is normal, or if it's because my monitor resolution is too low, or because my resolution is too high/sharp. I've read some articles on this topic but have not figured out with any certainty if eye strain is...

Would you say that trading spreads, based on either stat arb (convergence) or relative strength (divergence), is generally not a sustainable strategy for retail traders?

The focus for this conference is more on the sell-side (brokers, FCM's) than the buy-side (traders, investors), but sometimes they have a few interesting presentations for traders.

Was he a skilled trader, or Taleb's lucky monkey?

Bolling was reportedly one of the biggest NG traders in the pit. My understanding is that locals generally trade order flow on the floor and don't take longer term speculative positions. But apparently Bolling took some big speculative positions, like the NG/CL spread trade, so I'm not sure...

Eric Bolling was a prominent Nat Gas trader before he became a media personality. About ten years ago, he was reported to have made a huge profit on a convergence spread trade between Nat Gas and Crude Oil. I don't know how he did it ... I have never found a reliable relationship between these...

Putting the notion of a "Holy Grail" aside for the moment, I think it's interesting to consider the different option prices that can result from different option pricing models. Most of the option textbooks make reference to the B-S model, but option market makers I have personally spoken with...

Post a chart, please?

Any commodity that is priced globally will be influenced by currency rates. The currency correlation will be stronger when the volatility of the currency is higher than the volatility of the other price factors (supply/demand/cost of carry) of the commodity. Since all the factors making up...

You can be a successful trader with a modest 50% win ratio, assuming your wins are larger than your losses. But a 95% win ratio is a rather dubious claim with long option positions.