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  1. M

    Pierre Omidyar's house

    There has been a steady migration of wealthy people moving from California and establishing a new residence in the neighboring state of Nevada. Perhaps the state income tax rates (9.3% vs 0.0%) have something to do with their decisions. Tahoe (Incline Village) and Las Vegas (Henderson) are...
  2. M

    Cold fusion success: real or myth?

    Tony Stark built a 10 cm cold fusion reactor using 1.2 grams of palladium, in a cave in Afghanistan. Why can't the well funded geniuses at CERN (link) or LANL (link), with all their billions, do the same?
  3. M

    The Role Of Trend Traders In Creating Bubbles!!!

    Markets are efficient, "bubbles" are correct prices, "burst bubbles" are also correct prices, and "trends" are illusory formations on price charts that occur by accident during random walks. Nobel Prize winning economists tell us so.
  4. M

    I am seriously thinking of shorting oil long term

    Instead of shorting stock, perhaps buying put options (or put LEAPS) would be a better way to place a bet: Known & fixed risk, no worrying about unable-to-borrow, less impact of odd-lot trades. You could even buy options-on-futures puts, giving you the flexibility to choose whether to bet on a...
  5. M

    Trader Myers-Briggs Personality Type

    I've seen resumes of people who wanted a trading position, that listed their Myers-Briggs classication in a section titled "Qualifications". A few even say Strong ENTJ to further emphasize the unique desirability of this qualification.
  6. M

    Your favourite Risk/Money management Book ?

    I recommend Ralph Vince's second book: (Amazon link)
  7. M

    An interview where youll be asked on your outlook on bonds, stocks, commodities, etc?

    If you've got guts: "Here is a printout showing the net position of my mechanical trading systems on each of the instruments that I follow (hand over a three page document). If the systems are net long, my outlook is bullish. If the systems are net short, my outlook is bearish. And if an...
  8. M

    Position Sizing - How to Add to a Winning Position

    "Way of the Turtle" describes a trading system whose pyramiding schedule has at most three add-ons, for a total of four units. Each unit is the same size. In your notation, (1,1,1,1). In my own backtesting on my own (non-Way of the Turtle) systems, I don't see huge benefits from the third...
  9. M

    A New Untechnical Unalysis

    But why stop at three? You replace a binary choice (either +100 (long) or -100 (short)) with a ternary one: either +100 (long) or 0 (standaside) or -100 (short). Why do you not invent a quintenary sub-branch of mathematics which embraces a five-way choice:+100: 100% long, full-size long...
  10. M

    Question re CTA/CPO exemption

    Follow the links on this page for a thorough education. http://www.cftc.gov/industryoversight/intermediaries/cpoctaexemptionsexclusions.html One of the clicky pokey things will take you to CFTC Regulations 4.13 and 4.14, which includes this delightful image: Another will take you to...
  11. M

    Series 3 examination question

    Does anything bad happen if you fail? If not, you could take the exam the first time without studying any manuals at all. (zero investment of money, zero investment of studytime). If you pass, that's the end of it. If you fail, no worries, just study the 2005 manual you've already got and...
  12. M

    Risk $1000 to make Millions

    How does it test out in simulation? If you have the computer simulate a million parallel universes, each universe containing a clone of you who performs your investing strategy, how many of them achieve millions of dollars of profit in less than 5 years? If 900K out of 1M clones reach the...
  13. M

    How to rate / compare strategy performance

    I don't think this is true if you are trading Forex or futures. Our OP doesn't say what instruments he is backtesting.
  14. M

    How to rate / compare strategy performance

    Some people invent "performance measurement statistics" that attempt to quantify the desirability or goodness or superiority of a set of backtest results. You could have a look at some of the ones that have already been invented and named. Search engines will help you findSharpe Ratio Ulcer...
  15. M

    exceedingly good motivational books

    The Zurich Axioms by Max Gunther The Laws of Form by George Spencer-Brown
  16. M

    How to best prepare for black swan & other catastrophic events

    Now that you've determined the alternatives, you are ready to make a choice. You can eitherMarket (and trade) your system as-is. Many customers will reject it, muttering "Black Swan Risk!!", but some will accept it. After all, you like this system a great deal; there must be a lot of other...
  17. M

    Sell In May!

    This idea is tracked as a mechanical system on Wealth-Lab. See http://www.wealth-lab.com/cgi-bin/WealthLab.DLL/editsystem?id=17060 They name their system after Yale Hirsch, publisher of Stock Traders Almanac (link), who has been writing about "Sell in May and Go Away" for 25 years.
  18. M

    If you owe money on your home, are you really a 'homeowner?'

    Suppose your home is worth $300K. You know this because of appraisals, recent sales prices of comparable homes on the same street, etc.If you owe $5 on your $300K home, are you really a 'homeowner'? If you owe $1K on your $300K home, are you really a 'homeowner'? If you owe $5K on your $300K...
  19. M

    polls

    Should? Who died and made you God?
  20. M

    Chicago Tribune Article: Prop shops' pivotal role

    Um, how do you know that he didn't inherit $600K from an uncle who died 6 months ago?
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