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  1. M

    April Natural Gas

    Technical traders who play "momentum" strategies, probably got short last summer and remain short (& profitable) today.
  2. M

    Jokes 2

    Birthdays from Wikipedia Albert A. Gore, Jr. (31 March 1948) Hillary Rodham (26 October 1947) John F. Kerry (11 Dec 1943) William J. Clinton (19 Aug 1946) Howard Dean (17 Nov 1948) Nancy Pelosi (26 Mar 1940) Dianne Feinstein (22 Jun 1943) Charles E. Schumer (23 Nov 1950)...
  3. M

    Who's stupid enough to be shorting these levels?

    Who's stupid enough to short stock index futures at these levels? Exactly half of the people with positions. The other half are long. Obviously.
  4. M

    Series 3 course study material

    LongView is correct; the practice exams on the CD from www.securitiesexam.com contain ALL of the questions you'll see on the real exam. The practice questions on CD scramble the order of the answers to the multiple choices. On the math/hedging problems, they jiggle the numbers a bit. But if...
  5. M

    Information theory, Communication theory in trading ?

    Yes of course people use concepts from communication theory in trading. Consider it a "problem in estimation" and consult the works of Norbert Wiener et al for inspiration. I find that such things do provide an edge BUT should be considered crude tools for ugly problems. Wield them like a...
  6. M

    Where Does the US Still Lead?

    Microprocessors Software Data Networking Solar Energy Entertainment Aircraft Manufacturing
  7. M

    Understanding Why One System is More Profitable Than Another

    Here are a few of them: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2161865&highlight=Harris#post2161865 http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=2119391&highlight=Harris#post2119391...
  8. M

    Understanding Why One System is More Profitable Than Another

    ronblack likes to recommend the books by Michael Harris. Do a search; he has recommended them dozens and dozens of times. Me, I prefer (book 1) and (book 2) and (book 3). But to each his own. (I also think Weissman's pretty darn good, congratulations on finding it. If you love, Love, LOVE...
  9. M

    Guaranteed way to make big risk free money in options.

    Larry McMillan talks about it in his Options book, page 72. It's an old strategy and its name -- "selling teenies" -- goes back to the days when the minimum price increment was one sixteenth of a point, a "teenie".
  10. M

    Any firm provides brokerage, data-feed, and backtesting software all in one?

    For what instruments? I assume you are trading precious metals with physical delivery. In that case, the answer is: no. There isn't a firm that provides brokerage, data-feed, and backtesting software all in one, to test and trade and receive physical delivery of precious metals. Sorry.
  11. M

    Understanding Why One System is More Profitable Than Another

    You've got one datapoint. On portfolio P, with assumed costs C, for the time period T1 thru T2, using system goodness measurement metric M, system 1 happened to outperform system 2. If you had MANY datapoints, trying the same two systems over many portfolios, many different cost assumptions...
  12. M

    Understanding Why One System is More Profitable Than Another

    Don't forget that your book reported testing results of the COMBINATION(system + frictional costs + portfolio composition + begin/end dates)Maybe different portfolios of assets, or different start-and-end dates, or different assumptions for slippage and commissions, would have given different...
  13. M

    Percentage of daytrades in futures markets

    Or do it the other way: for each day, compute X = Volume / (TodaysOpenInterest - YesterdaysOpenInterest). Then calculate the average value of X. X is an approximation of (#Contracts_Daytraded / #Contracts_Positiontraded). This is method is slightly preferable because you get daily values...
  14. M

    Contango on rollover action

    If you've identified a reliable pattern of price movement, either in the spread or in the legs thereof, trade it and collect profits. Why wouldn't you?
  15. M

    Sirius XM Prepares Bankruptcy Filing

    When you call to cancel your subscription, they follow a script. Surprise, it features huge discounts if you'll change your mind and remain a subscriber. However the script is understandably weak in the "Overcoming Customer Objections to Commercials" department. Ask them if they'll ever...
  16. M

    Difference Between Fixed Fractional and Fixed Ratio?

    Fixed Ratio is explained in (this book) by Ryan Jones. One of the best ways to explore it, is to program Fixed Ratio and Fixed Fractional into a trading system backtest simulator, and run them. See which one gives results that you like best (or, dislike least). Fixed Fractional...
  17. M

    How to calculate probabilities?

    Assume Black-Scholes accurately models stock price movements. Assume you know the future volatility "sigma" of the stock's price action. Assume the stock price today is "P". Assume the price-to-be-touched is "S" (the "strike price"). The probability "X" that the stock will touch or exceed...
  18. M

    Is it possible to place an order with 4 decimals?

    Of course it is possible. But only in some tradeables. Since you didn't say, I'll assume you are trading Forex. Yes it is possible to place an order with 4 decimals in Forex.
  19. M

    I want out of the dollar, Where should I go?

    Short the Dollar Index futures (link-1), (link-2). This is a basket whose weights are:Euro = 57.6% JYen = 13.6% UKPound = 11.9% CanDollar = 9.1% SwedishKroner = 4.2% SwissFranc = 3.6%
  20. M

    how do you test for "streakiness"

    Suppose you have a set of observed trade outcomes ("W" or "L"). Suppose the number of trades equals N, an integer. One thing you could do, is use a trusted and certified random number generator to create 100,000 different sets of N trade outcomes. On the whole, these are non-streaky since...
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