Search results

The usual big "suspects": SMH (relative weakness this year) - QQQQ - SPY - DIA , in order. But QID seems interesting with a x2 leverage. To be investigated. Is the volume OK ?

Fair enough. I am preparing a battle plan based on the two variables core CPI actual vs estimate and gap up / down. It should tell us how the market makers "play" the numbers. I would fade only if the open gap (or lack of) seems extreme. And by the way I will go to the number net long. It is...

Romik, I respect all kinds of trading strategies. On this peculiar event on Friday morning, I would have a different approach, based on the open. If the open is a significant gap up or down, I will fade it. Probably with more powder (capital) if it is down because I still believe there is a...

OK> So how are you positioned now, for Friday morning ?

Core CPI number will be big catalyst. After so many days of going nowhere, we know the market is going to do something drastic. My problem with people who predict based on charts is that they have no clue on the CPI number. I do believe that the fundamentals, eventually are the catalysts of big...

I was able to carry shorts from 34.07 to 33.76. Obviously I missed a better range. Shorting the gap up at the open was the way to go. I wanted to have a better price, but it never occured. Ah well. SMH has been down 5 days in a row, now so, I am going to wait for a spike up. SMH often spikes up...

Core CPI is the number the market / Fed is looking at. RIght or wrong, this is their focus.

Well , much ado about nothing, once again. The markets are consolidating at record levels. The CPI number is probably going to break that tie, if it is a surprising number.

I really do not predict but I see that the semis are badly lagging. (-7% YTD vs + 13% S&P). So my best hedge is by shorting the SMH when the markets correct.

Then he would predict S&P close at 1230 for 2008 !

Like you I am a contrarian and like to play Devil's advocate. I am an agnostic in life in general and in trading in particular. I do no predict. I just develop systems which have an edge, according to backtestings. And many studies show that contrarian strategies have often the best...

Time frame ? This week, month, next year ?

Everything is possible. Maybe he is the exception and he will be wrong all his life. I would just challenge that it has more to do with bad luck than anything else. I am a reversion to the mean kind of trader, so it probably impacts my way of thinking. We will see.

I do not believe someone can be consistently wrong ! Actually many studies show that it is better to invest in mutual funds which underperformed in the past than vice-versa. Reversion to the mean, I guess. So, eventually that guy will be right. In 2007? Who knows. Prudent bull here.

Oh no, thanks to you. Your insight (manufacturing price) , humility and kindness are highly appreciated !

That's an easy one. 3. Basis comes to say....nothing ! (of substance, I mean)

I read in a book that one big shot of the Hedge Fund industry would fire any of his traders if they believed in the EMH !

EMH assumes that the investors make always rational decisions. The fallacy of the theory is already implied in this premise. Rational ? Maybe sometimes, but not oten. There will be always opportunities for an astute trader to benefit from irrational decisions. I trust I will continue to be one...

Do you think the markets are climbing the famous "wall of worrry"? Do we have instruments to measure this "wall" or is it just a myth ? Some traders on ET claim that it has more to do with "manipulation" than real anticipation of long-term changes in fundamentals. I do not think that is very...

You've got it. Need to use the BS detector. But still some bits of good information sometimes. And one has to like the 100% room to go !