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    Reading the Tea Leaves.

    This would be a shocking development, if true.. This morning, at 11:30, S&P cash had a high of 1425. So, looking at options 35 higher and 35 lower at the same time: Jan 1460 Call: 1.90 Jan 1390 Put: 4.80 Where you looking at a different month? Different contract? Puts, these days...
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    hows this deal for a noob?

    If the people are good and you REALLY get along with them, this is the only part that's worthwhile. Paying 10% off the top, 50% more on commissions, $65 month, and paying $800 up front for the double the margin seems pretty steep. If you're just getting started, you don't need double the...
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    hows this deal for a noob?

    You left out any positives. I can give IB $2500 of my own money, keep 100%, pay $.005/share, not get a series 7, and not pay anything per month. Are you trading with their money? What's your margin?
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    Nymex To List Softs

    Wow, I had totally missed that part of the press release: "beginning today at 6:00 PM for trade date December 21 ." IQfeed has these symbols: QKT - Coffee QFJ - Orange Juice QFT - Sugar #14 QYO - Sugar #11 QCJ - Cocoa QTT - Cotton Cotton shows a trade on 7/9/07, but that could...
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    Nymex To List Softs

    I'm thinking this is bad. NYBOT (due to the ICE acquisition) will certainly list their contracts electronically and soon. Having exact duplicates on NYMEX will only weaken the possibility for these new contracts to attract liquidity, particularly with side-by-side trading happening at NYBOT...
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    best books you've read on trading

    I disagree. I can sum it up in one sentence: simple automated technical systems don't work. The rest of the book is very nice statistical analysis of WHY, but the final conclusion is that he tested thousands of automated systems, and none of them had any statistical validity. He hints at...
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    Carrying cost source?

    Allendale publishes a market commentary at MGEX.com every USDA report. Current carry numbers (implied by cash market vs front month futures): Corn - 4.1 cts/bu/mo Soy - 6.2 cts/bu/mo Wheat - 5 cts/bu/mo
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    It's time to get serious on Sirius

    More deltas and nearly triple the time for a Mar 6 call (.10) The OI on the Jan 5s is insane, though. 173,000 contracts? Wow! Jan 2.5P have it beat with 182,000. I can't imagine that many people are betting on bankruptcy in the next 35 days (or made any money selling those things).
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    It's time to get serious on Sirius

    So, your argument is that people said, "Wow, Stern on Sirius!" and then signed up for XM? Alternatively, you're saying that quarter where both SIRI and XMSR skyrocketed with new subscribers would have actually been the *end* of SIRI were it not for Stern?
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    It's time to get serious on Sirius

    As long as XMSR is higher on that chart than SIRI, that means SIRI is LOSING market share! (That chart is subscriber ADDITIONS, not total subscribers) In any case, both these companies have broken models. When they rack up 700,000 gross subscribers, but only 400,000 net, that means 300,000...
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    It's time to get serious on Sirius

    That's spurious reasoning. Just because there are more subscribers today than there was before doesn't mean Stern drew an audience. Evidence of that: XMSR outperformed adding subscribers for the entire period, and they didn't have Stern. In other words, Sirius LOST subscriber market share...
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    It's time to get serious on Sirius

    Sirius is getting sucked up in the updraft from XM. Take a look at XMSR's chart and then SIRI--which one do you want to be long?
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    Executing Physical Crude on IB

    I think he means IB, not *an* IB. Their delivery policy is here: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/en/trading/marginRequirements/physicalDeliveryLiquidationRules.php?ib_entity=llc
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    DSC hose job

    Anyone who's automatically trading options that have ATM bid/ask spreads of 1.20/3.20 deserve to have their money distributed to the people.
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    soybean/corn option trading

    These bid/ask quotes are NOT coming from the pit, they're on eCBOT. Wheat Feb eCBOT: ... 540C - 2 5/8 bid, 4 7/8 ask 535C - 3 2/8 bid, 5 4/8 ask 530C - 3 7/8 bid, 6 2/8 ask 525C - 4 5/8 bid, 7 ask 520C - 5 5/8 bid, 8 ask 515C - 6 5/8 bid, 9 ask 510C - 7 6/8 bid, 10 2/8 ask 505C - 9...
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    soybean/corn option trading

    Oddly, eCBOT is showing actively updating bids and asks for January wheat strikes ranging from 475 to 540 (and has contracts listed for 430 up to 660). The pit, on the other hand, is showing only a few open strikes (being a serial and all) and only a 480 Put posted bid & ask. I'm not saying...
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    Andy's Spread Trading Journal

    For the most part, I agree. However, two books that were well worth it: 1) Futures Spread Trading: The Complete Guide, Courtney Smith. I would have saved a huge amount of time, effort, and mistakes had I purchased this one first. The book assumes you know how to trade, just not spreads, so it...
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    soybean/corn option trading

    IB has said they will have electronic grain options by December 1st. Being that it's now December 14th...
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    average slippage

    I assume you mean electronic contracts, not pit traded. A slippage of 2 ticks should be realistic unless you're moving huge volume.
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    CDE is a steal here.

    Why wouldn't you just buy the stock? Jan '09 7.5 puts (synthetic or outright) only have .30 of time value. If the stock is a steal, why cap your earnings to 7.5? Earnings cap aside, why limit your return if the stock will hit 7.5 in the next 2 *years*? Being short a put means a rally to 7.5...
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