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As you can see the automated strategies have failed to perform. I was doing well with AUTOTRADE1 (even well before the start of the thread), and had factored in a monthly performance of say 8%, until about mid-July. The market kind of changed, and I was incurring deep drawdown; so first I...

increase, Are you looking for predictive indicators or reactive ones? The S&P futures being down 50 at the open(930) obviously suggests the market will be down for the day (greater probability), but it does not tell you whether it is going to close higher that it opens at, or lower than that...

Glad you are getting something from it. As stated previously I will not consider full-time trading until my equity hits 500K, unless of course if my regular job gets uncomfortable.

Weekly Update for week 38 ended 11/16/2007 Horrible week. Glad I can look beyond the week, and the awful trading. Suffered a major option loss, without which I would have made an OK week. The week began on a good note on Monday, shorting ETFC at 6.05 premarket, covering after market opened...

As an addition to what was earlier said, yes the second should be a normal distribution, but you need to calculate the standard deviation instead of the average you got. Your average is actually called the mean deviation: sigma(abs(d))/n where d is difference between endpoint and startpoint...

Since the moves at an infinitesimal time interval ( say 1sec) is random, the average over a time-frame is proportional to the square root of the interval (will require a lot of mathematics to prove, you could get something similar in a good options valuation paper). So for the first problem...

markets recover when the sellers are exhausted

Actually "look before you leap" is a greater "secret" than "keep your losses small". I agree skill is borne out of experience (of the good, the bad, and anything in between) + some innate or acquired ability (perception, persistence, etc). While anything can be learnt, the learning curve is...

With a prop leverage of say 20:1, what drawdown will the firm allow? Can they handle a loss of 5% of the buying balance (total available funds), with the hope you will recover, or will they force you to shut down? Probably I have the wrong idea of how they operate, but I still think they do not...

It hasn't crossed my mind to go there. First I think the leverage would be suicidal to my account. Second, I do not trade a lot of round-trips like so many folks I see trading 600K shares a day. I know the options do cost, but when the opportunities are compelling, I do not mind paying the spread.

Yes I think my risk tolerance is greater than for most folks here. For that particular trade though, I made up my mind to exit when the option was trading at about $11.50 (would have lost only 3K). I put in a limit order close to the bidding price, it was not taken. Tried that for like two more...

It is to pay myself. Yes, I have a full-time job, but it feels good to have an extra buffer. Year end is still coming, and I know I will still have to bring out much more for the government: I won't do that without paying myself first.

Weekly Update for week 37 ended 11/09/2007 Great week, up 78K (45%) Pleased to have the many opportunities that showed up in the market this week amidst the turmoil. Now we have a market that is no more uni-directional (at least for the time being). For the week made 22 profitable trades...

It upped its internal guidance for next quarter, and all the shorts who have piled in since it hit 100 are scampering to cover. Not a remarkable earnings or guidance, but that is the problem with this stock. I was burned heavily shorting this in Feb. 2006 after its earnings release with...

If you trade mostly US instruments, you should specify USD as your base currency. Your commission should be same as for US traders, $0.75 per contract. So for the above scenario you should pay only $15 for the round-trip, a savings of $55. That could make all the difference for long-term...

Trying and failing initially. If you read prior posts, I mentioned how I started off in Dec 1999 as the NASDAQ euphoria was peaking, brought in all my savings of 16K, and withing two weeks lost over half, even though the NASDAQ index over the same period rose more than 20%, and I only knew how...

No I do not normally buy straddles before earnings. My experience tells me the premiums are on the high side most of the times. If there is something that gives me a stronger than normal conviction about the direction after earnings, there I may buy a directional option.

I short if I believe it is going down still (even after starting down). Of course I pick my trades. In addition, I do not necessary do it first thing at open. If it is already very depressed I could wait for a "dead cat bounce", or stay away altogether.

O yes, I follow them and the news around them all the time. Really amazing seeing how GOOG and BIDU seem to defy gravity. All analyst price targets are being hit, and they continue setting new ones. Would be interesting to see when they hit a brick wall. Not likely anytime soon though.

Weekly Update for week 36 ended 11/03/2007 Nice week, up 29K. Overtraded a bit, but still managed to rake in a good dividend. The key positive trades were option trades in CROX after its disappointing earnings (when those momentum stocks fall, they really fall!). Made money also buying the...