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I guess we are fine as long as your web site is not hosted at home :)

Be my guest at the crow-eating show :)

Amazon is NOT doubling in the next three years. Its already in a huge bubble right now. Nothing grows for ever. Barrier to competitive entry isn't that high, and margins are razor-thin. It will take a long time for earnings to grow enough to match the current valuation. (Of course you could...

Checked that thread and laugh at the people complaining of lack of volatility, and the market becoming efficient - that was less than a year before the financial crisis and volatility/inefficiency of 2008. Wonder what is different this time. Sample quote from then, explaining the situation.

I think you have the interpretation of the thread title wrong. The OP is saying in the last 20 years, the market has not gone this long without a 5% correction. From looking at the SPY, I can see the last 5% correction (from a prior all-time high) was June 27, 2016 - that was a 6.5% correction...

2030 is just 13 years away! People voted in Trump because the pace of change was too rapid. Are you saying we have seen nothing yet?

erratic discretionary. Doubling down until wiped out

Period Update 4/01/2017 - 7/01/2017 ---------- Slow and steady work on my recovery effort. First month of the quarter was great, followed by small losses the last couple of months. Still operating with extreme caution, and adhering to permissible trades. The number of trades done is reduced as...

When you realise that 2010 to 2016 has been a tremendous bull-run, to see the number of big decliners outpacing big runners makes my point. Now based on hard-data based on my premise (avoid big moves that are just dead-cat bounces from prior sell-offs, or sell-offs following prior run - no new...

The problem with that is the big up moves normally come after egregious declines. That is to be expected, and in my book does not count. The saying is that 'the market goes up via the stairs, but comes down the elevator', that is largely true. To eliminate dead-cat bounce effect, I think a...

You will regret re-investing if the stock is volatile (like most stocks that eventually go to 0 !) so instead of 100 -> 50- > 0 like you illustrated, try this: 100->50->80->40->20->35->0 come back and tell me your finding. (I was being merciful with the dead-cat bounces :))

Period Update 11/04/2016 - 4/01/2017 ---------- Well since I have processed the pains of November 2016, and the loss of more than half my account, here is in summary my monthly performance including that period. Starting Balance: 275,597 Start Date End Date P/L Withrawal Closing...

There you go! If there is too much subjectivity involved, its hard to know when you are breaking the rules until after the fact. To build confidence in following a system, you've got to prove that by following it - day after day after day, over a long period - 6 months or 1 year, you will make...

No not yet. Still in the consolidation phase - getting used to my regime of discipline. Will post an update at end of the quarter (month end).

You must be one of those out-of-school programmers that think any programming task takes minutes. Give them the task, and 10 months later you are still working to get a functioning application :)

So based on this we can expect the market to correct deep next week because the trade is closed? Just skeptical that a $600m loss in a fund can drive the market for a week.

You're right. The commissions for the year was 44,734 on 316 option trades and 392 stock trades. Target this year would be 100 option trades and 240 stock trades. Ideally would not like to pay more than 10-15K in commissions.

That is being overly optimistic. I am starting from "ground zero" in my trading now. Confidence is low, size very low - number of trades vastly reduced and strict rules being enforced, while taking out about 3.5K each month. Outlook does not look very bright at the moment.

Probably 50-50. The greatest damage has come from the doubling down - yes, i have doubled down also on losses on trades that were initiated 'with the trend'. You might say the initial entry was trend, but of course the doubling down is counter-trend (at least the short-term trend). Lost 62K on...

Given sufficient time those can be done as well. First time to define 'objectively' the type of relationship between one price move and another price move and variations that meet your criteria for 'too much' or 'too little', the various cases - again objectively defined. Will take time to all...