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  1. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    For sure are small stops working for you, I don`t doubt, but you don`t want to stay in 1(one) position till MOC or late afternoon. The rule of this system is 1(one) trade/day max. not a second this day...So small stops take it out cause the zigzag reversal stuff will hit any small stop staying...
  2. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    @romik I made the work and did apply different fixed pointstops in a strategy of mine to show the effects of different stopsizes in this strategy. It`s a breakoutstrategy on the YM, trading with the trend, close MOC or trail later in the day, the equitycurve shows 3 years of trades beginning...
  3. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I again observed a nice exhaustion bar, if anybody really looking for a long in this downtrend (or an exitpoint...) it`s more secure to wait for such a bar, look at this large bar with the highest volume of the day, nothing is perfect, market did not turn immediately, but chances of a turn are...
  4. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    No word about small stops, if translating this in my world, if I´m looking for 5-8 points ES for the day I can(and should..)use a stop of 5-10 points if tested with good probabilty, if you are pointing for 1.5 points ES you have to use a 2 point ES stop, I see some limitations in the math cause...
  5. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    mmmmmhh, By looking this thread i find this here.... ...it depends on the setup many of my setups are vigorously backtested, so i have no problem risking (for example) 21 pts to get a 78% chance of winning 14 pts now, that is an unacceptable risk/reward ratio by some reckonings, but ...
  6. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    If you refer to trade only "good" priceaction, you are facing some probs, sometimes the market dries out soon after some nice move/volume. Next how do you objectively define "good" priceaction, from what level of movement/volume does it begin or end? It`s a matter of your daily motivation, how...
  7. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    The time I entered market looked good, but went flat soon....
  8. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    and you may know it after 2-3 losses, uuuh choppy today..., nobody tells you in advance that this will be a choppy/spiky day, you see it after the fact.
  9. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    porgie, it`s not a problem with a system it`s a problem with more or less random marketnoise, the less volume in the market, the more the chop and spikes, the more the "Big Boys" are playing stopfishing, that`s the reason too why breakouts over HOD/LOD in Lunchhour are rarely meaningful. In a...
  10. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    you ending with the same loss by looking for one trade/day with let`s say 6 points ES, or getting stopped 3 times with 2 points, and i had times in 2002 lets say I took ~12 trades and getting hit 10 times, i had large losing days with frequent trading with smaller stops, may be bad...
  11. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I don`t want to length this stop thing, this meets to many opinions and is surprisingly a highly emotionloaded stuff... My arguments against thinking in terms of a point stop and "the right stopsize" resumed: thinking in fixed points is not a good idea, simply look at indexlevels, if...
  12. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    That`s splitting hairs talking about a few points more or less, that was a period of very high vola and indexlevel reducing 2 points to a meaningless nothing... On 4/04/2000 the low of SPX was 1416.41, the high was 1526.45, makes 110 points On 4/14/2000 the low of SPX was 1339.4, the high...
  13. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    even in shorter times you see a lot of fluctuation, so you would have better used larger stops ~ april 2005 and smaller in the summer, you see it in the %range and the ATR(10), there`s a different of 50% in average bar size a few weeks later. Of course also usable with intraday data
  14. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    coolweb, ATR = averagetruerange, all my stops and targets are based on it. Averagetruerange(10) = average size of bars the last 10 bars, gives you a definition of marketmovement/volatility. With a fixed point or fixed % stop/target you are not adapting to marketvolatility. In 2000-2001...
  15. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Spike did say 2 points was the stopsize for him not reducing his netprofit too much(but reduced...), so far I remember.... So assume Spike to be a very skillful trader using a finetuned system with very good entries....and exits... If anybody is more in the novicetrader area I expect him...
  16. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    stopsize is NOT variable Man...in 2000 we had days with 80 -100 points ES and most of the time ~30-50points, you are talking about using 2 points stop in this environment? And in 1996 we had days with 2 points daily range, using 2 points stop? Not sounding very logic to me not to adjust...
  17. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Well, that`s all right, I said stopsize depends on the exact definition of strategy/entrypoint. So a stop working for one person with very good skills in filltering out false signals by experience and good skills in getting a good fill, may not work for the other trading more or less the same...
  18. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    the myth about small stops.... some mean using small stops keep them out of trouble....wrong Stopsize is an Var. depends on strat. and marketvolatility/action not on the personall feel well level. Stops ALWAYS reduce the netprofit, by testing strats you soon find smaller stops reducing...
  19. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    all this(and every other...) strats work out good only cause the exits, if taking just the reversalsignals or any more simple exits or one lot/size only you are ending with a very volatile equity and deep drawdowns. That is a general situation for ANY System. At least 50% of your braintime...
  20. M

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    veeerryy last word to pullback... it`s a definitive sound principle, but the S&P is not the easiest to trade this (or any other method...:-) other markets are better trending... here a trend/pullback on 26 years daily DAX, ~80% win, avgwin/avgloss = 1.38, no 1 : 3....
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