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Just a quick go at the math: 1 - 0.4 - 0.4 = 0.2 or 20% for questions A or B

Yes it is possible to know today if the market is trending or ranging. However, you can't know with anything other than 50% precision whether tomorrow will change from trending to ranging, or vice versa.

As a retail trader, selling premium has no "edge" whatever strategy you employ to pick strikes, and maximizing payoff is optimal. If you can handle the bleed, following a Taleb-like net long barbell strategy may have an inherent edge.

Maximizing payoff is the best strategy. Generally, high probabilities come with small rewards, and vice versa. However one calculates probability, whether in the link or by using option delta, payoff maximization is the key.

You may want to study Kalman filters. Instead of doing all the matrix math, just search John Ehlers and "Optimal Tracking Filters."

Payoff = (reward/risk)*probability of win How do you calculate the probability of a win you ask? https://sixfigureinvesting.com/2018/11/predicting-price-ranges-with-historic-volatility/

Do you mind sharing your filter coefficients? Try [1,-2,1], which is an MTI (moving target indicator) high pass filter, and let me know what you think.

Here is the real reason MA's can suck. MAs are lowpass filters. This immediately implies that price is a complex wave with component waves of many different frequencies, amplitudes and phases. This is the realm of digital signals processing (DSP) and I will treat it as such. Lowpass filters...

Being the insurance company sounds dandy, until you read about LTCM or Supertrader Karen.

What moves the market is buying and selling. That may sound simplistic, but you can't really go beyond that explanation. Trying to find cause and effect every day is a path to frustration and madness. What underlies buying and selling decisions is of course psychology, but that is too difficult...

The potential snag is pareidolia. The classic example is looking at a cloud and seeing an elephant. Pareidolia - Wikipedia If you can do proper backtesting of a given pattern and determine it provides a positive expectancy return, then go for it. Otherwise, don't trade the pattern, because of...

This only shows you what was, and not what will be. If you want to be part of the pump, then you have to establish a position before it happens. Otherwise, be prepared to play the dump if you can find the shares to do so, and like staying up past midnight.

I look for the first sign of weakness after the trend has changed in order to enter a trade. Then I usually look to hedge with options, although I am looking for better types of hedges. The way I define a trend, or more specifically a trend change, is with the way in which I calculate and use a...

John Ehlers: Rocket Science for Traders Cybernetic Analysis for Stock and Futures Cycle Analytics for Traders Advanced, yes, but that doesn't guarantee you will be able to use any of his work to make money.

So how is a flash mob of buyers, with the expressed intent of a short squeeze, like a pump and dump bucket shop, and how is it different? It seems they are both fomenting a market, yet most of the flash mob money doing the buying probably never posted on social media and are just doing a...

I don't disagree, but "Cup with Handle" like all pattern recognition is subjective. The pattern can be quantified and made objective so that it can be programmed, but then you easily lose half or more of the prospective companies which might be forming a "Cup with Handle" due to not matching...

Fine, but how do you quantify Cup with Handle into an algorithm that can be programmed, and used to scan over thousands of possible financial assets?

I like the Box-Cox method of data transformation for normality. Ytransformed = ((Yoriginal^lambda)-1)/lambda see: https://www.wessa.net/rwasp_boxcoxnorm.wasp After the transform and calculation of your result, back calculate the result to the original scale. Yoriginal =...

Trying to bring the scientific method and scientific rigor into finance and TA in particular is a good thing. However, anything from the world of physics that is applied to finance is generally a misapplication of the physics.

Why do you think Quantopian is going under? Steve Cohen is tired of funding all the retail quant systems that just don't work or add enough alpha.