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Random walk is a model of how prices evolve through time. Random walk is analyzed by statistical based methods. The technical tools you mention are linear methods used to analyze other types of financial models, such as signal+noise.

General principles. Although I do find Ehlers work interesting and sometimes useful. Maintain your perspective about technical analysis as well as financial modeling. Both Ehlers and Jurik model market prices as signals with additive noise, and use digital signals processing (DSP) to analyze...

At least with Ehlers work, you can find the source code and modify according to your needs. Although with some searching, could probably find Juriks' code as well. Just keep in mind, that if you believe price movement is best modeled by a random walk (lognormal distribution with skew and...

Sentiment changes for every reason under the sun. You will drive yourself crazy looking for exact cause and effect at these points. If you had access to market internals, such as order flow, perhaps you could anticipate turning points. Otherwise, as a retail guy, you can only react to what you...

No, it's not possible. There is one way and one way only to make price go down, and that is to sell, conversely there is one way and one way only to make price go up, and that is to buy. You can't make price go down by buying. As has been pointed out, you can sell with the intent of driving...

I guess it all depends on were you are and were you want to go. If a 165lbs guy wants to get 23in biceps, then yes, he will need to annihilate his biceps for years to come. To tone up already shapely calves, not so much. My emphasis is mainly on muscle growth, and doing yoga isn't going to get...

If your goal is to gain muscle mass (or hypertrophy the muscles), you have to work them to failure. That's true at any age. No way around the old adage "No pain, no gain." Of course that pain should be muscle pain, not joint/tendon pain.

Depends on how you define "flat." The slope of a MA is seldom zero. I would recommend a signal-to-noise calculation to determine if a MA is range bound and non-trending.

Nice phrase. If you don't mind, I will borrow it for future use.

How can traditional BB work when the underlying MA has a positive group delay (ie lag), and a fixed lookback window? I don't use BB, but at least people should calculate them using some of the newer adaptive or near-zero lag MAs.

Each day is 50/50. See Gamblers Fallacy.

However, to get the positive expectancy you pretty much either have to apply some existing technology in an innovative way or actually create the innovative technology. Markets are much too efficient to apply something as pedestrian as an SMA crossover with a stop loss and money management...

Here is a simple MA system for you all to backtest. Just follow the slope of the curve. Create three MAs. MA1 use coefficients [1,2,3,2,1] divided by 9 of course so it sums to unity, and center it on data point three of price. MA2 use coefficients [1,2,2,1], divided by 6 of course, and...

The reality is that the way moving average systems have traditionally been used have either always worked, and will continue to work in the future, or have never worked, and never will work. Most of us know it is the later. Same for most other well known TA indicators. The reason MAs as...

The probability of touching the strike price within the life time of the option is approximately twice the probability of finishing ITM.

To paraphrase Taleb: "...correlation is charlatanism." However, cointegration might mean something if that data could be presented.

Right, the skew in the IV smile says the market is projecting one outcome more than another. You could also look at it as the markets fears one outcome over another. However, that's a probabilistic outcome. For example, a negative skew in the IV smile does not mean the price will go down over...

He reiterates that any single trade basically will have a random outcome. He implicitly states early on that one needs a positive expectancy system, but never goes into the mechanics of how to find and develop such a system. He recommends paper trading. Not sure how old this video is, but these...

There is more than one way to finance the debit of buying options. One method Taleb has used in the past was to buy t-bills and use the interest income to purchase options. Look into his barbell strategy further to see what specifics he is currently recommending.

Calculating SD using price is like chasing a feather in the wind. Price time series are non-stationary data. A stationary time series is one whose statistical properties such as mean, variance, autocorrelation, are all constant over time. One common method to check if data is stationary is...