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  1. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Correct. Forget about debating what he has done, and look at the way he has done things. He has succeeded in making the Fed look incompetent and disorganized because of the way he is doing his job. No one thinks of him as a strong leader or a decisive decision maker; it doesn't matter if he...
  2. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Media: "Financial fears intensify" "A global train wreck" "Financial freefall" "Odds favor recession" "Stocks tumble on US recession fears" Pay close attention to what the Fed does and what they say. An aggressive move will cause a very nice short covering rally, but if they again...
  3. O

    A relaxing way after trading

    Since you can just right click and freeze the game while the counter still rolls, any high time can be seen as suspect.
  4. O

    Captions please. All are welcome.

    "Hi, I'm Larry, this is my brother Darryl, and this is my other brother Darryl."
  5. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    I would be trailing stops down on shorts, a snapback will happen at some point.
  6. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Let's review. Over the last couple weeks Paulson, Bernanke, and Bush have all come on TV and made announcements that things are bad, they are getting worse, and there is just not much good news out there. Then they follow that by doing absolutely nothing, they imply something will be done at...
  7. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    It will be hard for the market to mount any meaningful rally while the evidence continues to point to the fact that one of the most powerful people in the financial world is incompetent.
  8. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Well INTC earnings weren’t bad, they were absolutely horrible. If the Fed cuts tomorrow morning, we might make it all the way back to 1400.
  9. O

    Looking for a good prop desk

    Paraphrasing another post: The good firms I know of (in alphabetical order) are Assent, Bright, Echo, Vtrader. Call the firms and find the best fit for you, and make sure you ask about comms, long and short interest, capital interest charges, monthly charges, rebates, lock up for your capital...
  10. O

    $8k to $80k in '08

    rcanfiel, How many consecutive trading weeks would someone need to make you think it is possible?
  11. O

    Selling naked puts question

    The option price you see listed on your quote page is equal to intrinsic plus extrinsic value. In order for the market maker to figure out how much extrinsic value there should be he uses a theoretical option pricing formula, and one of the inputs in that formula is an interest rate...
  12. O

    Selling naked puts question

    Ah, we have a definition problem. I am using "cost of carry" to mean the net interest that someone pays to their clearing firm for holding that position as well as dividends received or paid. This is not any part of the actual option contract, but the market maker's "cost of carry" is used in...
  13. O

    Selling naked puts question

    Why do you keep thinking that if you do a trade as a combo vs. as just one trade there is some difference? You have been told by each poster so far that if you are short a Put by any means or any order then you can be assigned, period. There is no "agreed cost" of carry, I have explained that...
  14. O

    Selling naked puts question

    I will try one last time. Using a very simple example, if you sell ten 50 delta Puts to the floor (as one trade or part of any combo) then the market maker will buy 500 shares of the underlying stock to hedge himself (or the appropriate delta hedge if part of a combo). So he is now long Puts...
  15. O

    Selling naked puts question

    Are talking about going to the floor with a combo order in standard listed options, or are you talking about some flex or exotic product? Your assumptions about vanilla listed options are incorrect. Costs of carry are not set. Interest rates change, so the cost of carry changes. Dividends...
  16. O

    Selling naked puts question

    You are making it too complicated. If you are short a Put, then you are short a Put, it does not matter what else you have, or when/why/how you did the trade. If the Put is an exercise candidate, per the formula I outlined, then you may be assigned. That is pretty much all there is to it.
  17. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Anyone else watch the SOX? I like to use it for a confirming and once in awhile a leading indicator. It is at the lowest level since 2003.
  18. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    Interesting. You appear to be the only person to have ever used this word. I have had a couple short trade setups today, but I will admit that I am chicken. If/when the fed makes the "surprise" 50 point cut the market will have a knee jerk up move. I wish they would just do it and get it...
  19. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    BAC says oops we made a terrible investment in CFC so I guess we just have to buy the whole darn thing.
  20. O

    ES Journal Archive (2006 - 2008)

    The market is now begging for government intervention. There has been no love from the administration or the Fed so far. Fed's Poole at 9:30am tomorrow and the big one Bernanke at 1:00pm Thursday. They can help alleviate the fear which is in control of the market right now if they so choose.
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