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@Sprout Ah, glad you are still around. My point/question is that off exchange transactions do not show during RTH. I believe Marc Fischer stopped looking at volume for this reason. If they do not show in a volume bar chart, how do you compare two time frames ? You don't know, what you...

Btw..tried to get an answer from "sprout" who was discussing volume quite eloquently on a previous thread until some meanies chased him away. LOL

IMHO one of the best aspects of being a price action trader is that all activity (swaps, blocks, secondaries, etc.) is eventually reflected in the price. When I look at volume, I believe this is NOT the case. If I am correct in this assumption how does a trader compare the day to day...

@Sprout I think I understand and appreciate your philosophical approach , but the concept of volume must be defined to be compared in any scenario. Therefore, back to my previous, when you refer to volume bars how do you know that day 1 was missing off exchange volume and day 2 was not , etc.

@hhiusa looking at sell side research, I'm pretty sure positive test results were/are expected. I still think the weakness is due to the doubts on regulatory relief and a 2.15 on the 10 yr. But, both of these issues could possibly be resolved quickly, and then you have your catalyst.

@Sprout agree, every trader needs their own personalized approach. Question regarding volume...a lot of volume is not as readily apparent as it used to be (due to swap, etc) do you still see it as being relevant ? Or does the " full data set" you refer to have the "hidden data" ? Thanks

Slightly off topic....are RenTec's performance numbers known and some what validated ? What are they ? Thanks

Oh, I have the specifics, including the track record. If you do not you can not calculate KC in the first place. I'm staring to believe that the inflated KC stems from what ND is referring to in post 4, the assymetric payout that can't be relied on in the future.

You are barking up a different tree. I do not 6 m calls, I make continuous st calls. As I said in my previous post " it kept breaking support" indicating many shorter term calls. If it continues to break supports, I keep my short bias. If it rally's, and starts breaking R, that will change...

What did TA indicate over the last 6 m....as it kept breaking support...it told me that it was going lower, and it did. Although fundamentals agreed as well.

@newwurldmn is what you are referring to from the effect of gamma ? I actually try not to incorporate the potential positive of gamma when calculating targets ( ie :gamma would just be icing on the cake), but on the other hand isn't gamma a possible benefit of long vol ? Thanks

Your conclusion from the chart is wrong. The point is to compare the % to the overall cap. Haven't changed much.

How and where is that factored into the KC formula ?

does the KC calculation have any practical value in calculating optimal position size when trading long option premium ? When I calculate the KC value using my w-l ratio and profit loss numbers I get .19 Or 20%. But I would never put this much of a portfolio into one trade buying premium (no...

so more or less a reversal of last 6 months. You may be dead on but, as Steve M asks, what is your rational and the catalyst ? thanks

@vanzandt do you prefer XBI over IBB as the underlying ? why ? thanks

Sold to close M and APA puts at profit. Only 2 DTE on the M, APA down 4%, put up 100 %, figure ring the register. But this is where the gamma kicks in (my original 50 delta is now at 80) to swing for the fences. Boy, whole energy complex (MLPs included) looks bad.

@Buy1Sell2 in the simplest terms....because usually when you have a global equities rally it is driven by growth which has a inflationary component to it. If so, commodities should move higher as well due to said inflation.

@recession2016 same with equities vs bonds, one is probably off. unless we are in a goldilocks situation with nice slow growth and little inflation ?

Ok, remind me, WHY are you trying to call the "top" of one of the most analyized, liquid, traded indexes ? Where is the trade even if you are right ? Long expensive puts ? Short Es, etc with supper tight stops ? Not getting the risk/reward. Whole bunch of other sectors and asset classes to...