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I'm not sure how to put your results into context with my results. First thing is that I wasn't able to go back to the beginning of 2013 like you since I didn't have the data, so mine started Oct 24. Second thing is that I see your PnL is $36k, but I wonder what this is based on. Buying 100...

I see that you ran this on the SPY. My questions are, where is your entry and exit? Since I ran my study on the ES, I looked at entering in the last second before the market closed and exiting one second before the market opened. SPY does have extended hours trading, so its possible to do...

I would conclude the opposite. Since we can't really exclude the costs, buy and hold is actually better. Plus, it takes just one day of missing an entry to lose perhaps a 20 point winner which will have a large impact on the bottom line. Also, given how this is a trading forum, buying the...

Ok, I can't believe I actually put in the work to do this, but here is a quantitative study. You will probably notice that I'm not nearly as adept as most people here given my rudimentary methodology, but I believe its accurate, and would replicate exactly what a trader would do in order to...

I do agree. If we take enough days, not just a nice bull run of several months, then you can clearly see many green bars are cancelled out by the red bars. (yes, I'm dumbing this down!) What you have left might be an average of a couple of points per day, during a good run, but not over many...

I honestly do not think this is a problem. You can easily enter a market order at 16:14:45, and you have 15 seconds to get your fill which clearly wont be a problem in the ES. This is a 1 second chart of the ES. I outline in gray the area in the last 15 seconds before 16:15 shutdown. You see...

Sadly no. I only have data since 2013. (Sierra Charts might have 1 minute data for 10 years though on their servers and that is good enough to build these charts) I did just now load up 2000 days, and I get this chart that does go back to 2013. I squeezed the chart to fit in more bars, and...

I posted this earlier in another thread in response to a member here, Rickshaw Man, who goes on and on about how its free money. (he doesn't seem to post on days it doesn't work) This chart covers the overnight period per one bar for the ES. The open of the bar happens at 16:14:59 pm, and the...

On the flip side, imagine how many people are trading this hoping for a breakout only to be wrong several times. So if you're down $200 with a mini contract, imagine how nice it would be to be down only $20 with a micro (plus maybe a bit more with commissions) $50 per point for ES or $20 per...

I completely agree with this view. As much as I enjoy @Stockolio 's analysis, its impossible to predict how it ends when the powers have so much leeway with how they handle the situation. People keep asking how come the housing market hasn't crashed in places like Vancouver or Toronto when...

So I'm sure many people here are curious to ask what this final piece was? Perhaps you can share the thread?

I think if any analyst realized they had even an 75% win rate, they would say fuck being someone's bitch and collecting a paycheck, I'm gonna go make money from my amazing calls. Clearly most analysts do better by collecting the paycheck.

Yup, this I think is exactly key. Also, as you say customization. But I look at it more in terms of being able to scale in. With a full NQ or ES contract, a new guy is really not in a position to be trading multiple contracts. At the same time, its difficult to nail the perfect entry if...

One huge benefit I see is for swing trading. It will be impossible to play for ticks and expect to make a profit after commissions, but if you're wanting to trade the hourly chart for example, this will be perfect. I also think that this will be the perfect vehicle bring a trader out of SIM...

That really would be far too expensive. The contract is 1/10 the size, and the cost is even less than 1/2 as much. Then on top of this, you might get slippage depending on the volume.

I don't understand what you are saying. If a candle is red, it means that the close is less than the open. These candles open at 6pm, and close at 09:30am. Rickshaw says that you can always make money during the overnight session, and for that to be the case, the bar would need to close...

Lets get some historical perspective here. Attached is a chart that shows the ES from 18:00pm to 09:29:59, essentially the overnight session. Each bar is one overnight session. You can see the insert which shows the settings used to make this chart. Now I'm not wasting any time to do a...

I hate to say it like this, but the fact of the matter is, if you think the other side has it better, it is certainly easy to downgrade your job, or just quit, and live off the system. This would entail not living in New York City, not sending kids to private school, not having any vehicles...

I don't know about your wave counting, but I see a triple top at 54, so if you're gonna exit longs or enter shorts, this would be the place to do it

At the inspiration of the guy who posted the chart above, I ran your numbers in this handy Monte Carlo spreadsheet I have. You state that 22% are 2.7R winners, and 20% are 0.5R. This gives an average of 1.6R at your 42% win rate. It might not be super accurate, but good enough I think. So if...