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I'm quite chuffed to hear that my (so far) short and rather amateur bit of research into flies has resulted in much the same perspective as yours. :) I've had some reasonable success with IFs in my IRA account, but can't claim to understand them well... if you have any reading recommendations...

I'm far from an expert on flies, but I do have some comments from a more general perspective. I'd say that the risk is secondary to the trade decision you're making. A fly is designed to perform in a specific manner in specific market conditions - i.e., you had a direction and a price movement...

I started a journal very recently and for much the same reasons, but I post every trade - either right after entry/exit or at the end of the day - simply because if you're going to keep yourself honest, that's the most honest you can get. There's no way, or motivation, to fiddle and fudge the...

I will have you know I identify as one. None of your perverted homeostasis stuff for me, thank you very much.

STO IWM 190913P144.5 $1.00 STO QQQ 190913P181 $1.25 STO TLT 190913P145 $1.07 BTC TLT 190913P145 $0.97 VIX is still high, and the prices slid off a bit today, so I'm opening a few (shorter-term) trades. I'm slowly settling on a rationale for wheel trading that's bounded by not caring that much...

Closing several trades today, mostly based on a feeling of wanting to reduce my market exposure and "take another set" based on the current conditions. SPY @ 292.78, BTC 190920P284,2.45db (from 4.08cr) SPY @ 292.78, BTC 190920P284,2.45db (from 4.00cr) XBI @ 81.22, BTC 190906P79,0.49db (from...

"The robots/computers are coming for your job" applies more to some sectors than others. Not that the public would ever notice this one, or think of it as a concern.

If you want the projection of theta for a given strike and expiration - i.e., a plot of what it should look like from a given time t - then your broker's platform should be able to plot it for you. E.g., the TradeStation platform: A surface for a range of strikes: Taking what you wrote...

BOT GE Oct18 7P, 0.24db This morning, my portfolio delta was ~185; this brought it down to 45-ish. I do like to sell puts, and I am generally bullish - but that was quite a bit over the amount of exposure I like. Plus, it's a cheap bet against GE, for which I've long harbored a mild dislike...

That post instantly made me think of the classic Fermi Problem: "How many piano tuners are there in Chicago?" Perhaps the OP could use that kind of reasoning for a decent approximation.

Following up on this thought... oh, of course not. 1) Given the settlement mechanics of SPX (really, SPXW; I see no reason I should expose myself to that AM-settled craziness), I'm simply not going to hold it till expiry. In fact, it may be a good idea to put a time-based exit on any SPX trades...

"Alligator spread"? "Broker's Wet Dream"? Seems like the transaction costs would eat you alive.

I see. Although, given the assumption that you can establish that favorable market conditions exist, selling strangles sounds like an even better option (at that kind of wing widths, you're pretty close to it anyway.) 20 Sep 19. IV skew is 14.96%/21.74% for the short strangle, so doesn't seem...

Ah, OK; appreciate the clarification. Seems I didn't understand your shorthand of "1stdv / 2stdv condor". Quick review of SPY for the expiration I mentioned gives me an ATM straddle of just over $11, with a put side spread worth 1.63 and the call side at 0.72, which is pretty much in the...

Rolled the XBI trade out and down for a small credit: Interesting sidelight: I find my thinking on rolling has been somewhat affected - maybe positively - by various people in my "adjustments" thread who basically said "simply close the trades that become non-profitable". I disagree with that...

@Jerkstore, I get your premise - selling high IV makes more sense in a low-vol overall market - but why would anybody sell a 1SD IC in high vol for 22% of spread??? Of course you'd lose money doing that. Right now, with VIX at 20.11, ~1SD IC in SPY with 25DTE is paying more than 33% of spread...

This point is especially salient. Stops have their uses, including in options where you've defined your "uncle point" - I think of those as "emergency preservation of capital" stops. Slow changes in price, due to volatility changes or otherwise - e.g., 3SD moves that take a day to happen - don't...

Wow, I never got that emergency telegram with the all-caps bold red lettering. I must not be one of "us" yet. Sooo jealous... Who was it that informed that universal but still highly exclusive group that none of you understand stops? Must be some moron who specializes in absolutes. Nah, can't...

I really appreciate the feedback. That's a large part of my intent in writing it, and I'm glad to hear it's working. (A bit of programming lore: one of the major reasons for documenting your code, with verging-on-stupidly-explicit explanations, is not so much that other people will want to...

You may have missed the "most basic" qualifier in what I wrote. Please review it; it really is the key to understanding the entire phrase. 1) Stops don't "move too much"; they're fixed. 2) If yours "get triggered really easily without need", then you're using them incorrectly. 3) There are...