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First, I apologize for the length of this thread. I wish I were a bit more terse. Secondly, no, this isn't an "America Bashing" thread. I am creating it in hopes of having a philosophical discussion of economic possibility and the role of the middle class, specifically in the United States...

The only thing that goes up in a bear market is correlation.

Nothing like being nearly 100% your long term (200 day) moving average ... :eek: China was only 50% above the long term average when that bubble came crashing down. Beware the high flyers. The long term average is a powerful magnet -- everything eventually reverts too it. I would be...

And yet somehow when they meet an egg, a human is what you get. Interesting. So yes, under the right conditions, they do have the potential... Basically, you have run out of arguments and are now going for the age old ad hominem (I should probably wait a moment so you can look that up). A...

Philosophy would be no where without hypotheticals. Most evolved assumes some environmental conditions. If the polar ice caps melt and the world floods, are we still the most evolved? You seem to equate intelligence with evolution -- which is perhaps true at this junction, but may not be true...

Most highly evolved? How presumptuous. So if a more highly evolved creature were to land on our planet, would you willingly give up your 'inalienable' rights? By your argument, you should, and they should have all rights to exterminate you at free will. Basically, I just believe that up...

So where does this innate right come from? Ah yes, that is right -- as soon as the sperm and the egg combine, they somehow supersede all other creatures on earth...

Well said. At the very end of the first trimester (which to me is the latest you should be getting an abortion), a fetus is the size of a small strawberry. Freedom my ass. If it were a freedom issue, and not a religious issue, the people defending these fetus' should also be defending the...

Evolving discussion is not side-railing. The academic nature of the topic has kept the trolls at bay. By all means, continue. I certainly will continue keenly reading from the side-lines until I feel the need to chirp in. The discussion and papers have been quite enlightening.

Smoothing a moving average, without adding lag, is really a question of filtering noise while capturing significant price movements. Looking at time-agnostic data series, like renko charting, was a real help in this area for me. I stopped looking at periods as relative to time, but rather...

Which means that you can't just use his strategy as an insurance policy -- you have to be 100% invested in it, because you slowly bleed to death waiting for the first black swan. But what if the fat tail event is that there ARE no fat tail events for a long period of time? Well, then you...

Could Taleb be fooled by randomness himself? :confused: Wouldn't that be ironic! Anyway, I don't understand how you can run a fund where you are 93% treasuries and 7% lotto tickets, and yet charge on the whole 100%. The fund should just go 100% lotto tickets and charge on 100% and expect...

Taleb is an interesting character. He seems quite arrogant from his books and interviews. On the other hand, he makes some very, very good points. I would love to see the equity curve. It seems like one of those 'keep 10% of your portfolio in this strategy, so that when the other 90% goes...

I find this discussion of tick-rate per time unit as a measure of liquidity quite interesting. In my personal experience, 'time' is a confounding variable. In fact, I do everything I can to remove it. I find that prices move relative to information -- whose closest proxy we have is either...

It is the 'rags to riches to rags' cycle, happening on a massive level. There was an excellent quote in the recent HBO miniseries John Adams. To re-phrase it: Our forefathers studied war so that their children could study math and science so that their children could study art and poetry...

So then what happens when physical labor is replaced with mechanical parts on the assembly line? I would much rather be in the country investing the goods, which most likely includes the designs for the robotics running the assembly lines, than the countries of middle class workers getting...

In my opinion, as long as we can own and protect the intellectual property, we are effectively a manufacturing country. Example: 1) Inventor patents widget A 2) Inventor convinces investors to provide capital for production 3) Inventor ships blue-prints for production of Widget A...

Industrialization can be virtual, you know... If America can remain educationally competitive (which it is NOT doing a good job of right now), we will always be able to export ideas and concepts, protected under our excellent patent and copyright system, for manufacturing in other countries...

What cannot be? A trend? As I said, I believe a trend is an imbalance between buyers and sellers. I believe that imbalances derive from interpretation of news events and emotion (fear and greed at extremes). Ever wonder why the only thing that goes up in a down market is correlation? That...

That is very interesting. I too have noticed a similar characteristic. I like to think of it as the decisions and events of the higher periods are randomly distributed in the period below. Though that theory would somewhat assume that the closer you go to the tick level, the more random the...