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  1. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    Yes, the 1300 deaths in Florida is what DeSantis achieved by undercounting. I know from county officials and healthcare folks that Texas is doing the same thing. Numbers are likely to reflect in a week or two.
  2. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    CDC website has the pneumonia death stats for Florida. Deaths due to pneumonia averaged around 5,500 for past five years. This year it is shown as 6800 or so. Something is amiss. I think it is called DeSantis.
  3. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    Apologies. I should have seen the smilie!!!
  4. W

    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    Well, this one worked out, but the system didn't like the way it happened. Today will tell whether this will be a sweet one or an ok one. If it closes positive today, closing out the shorts and will write some premiums. Still not comfortable on long side.
  5. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    Yes, you are defending someone who does not allow people to wear masks during an infectious disease outbreak!!. Trump has over achieved. Have you seen mortality statistics out of Florida? Any explanation why people who are dying of COVID seems to be a low %, but people dying of pneumonia has...
  6. W

    The Scientific Models that Drive US Public Policy on COVID are Wildly Wrong

    Scientific models have been remarkably good. It is in the nature of scientific method to project into future with uncertainties that are statistically estimated. It is also in the nature of science to update its estimates and models based on new information. If we had listened to scientists USA...
  7. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    https://news.yahoo.com/amphtml/wisconsin-reports-record-number-coronavirus-160959549.html Two weeks after the Republicans blocked the stay-at-home orders. Vote. Else these people could kill your grandparents, cancer patients or friends with heart conditions...
  8. W

    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    Am in a similar trade using SPY puts and IWM with target to 2750-2800. That is meant as a warning!!! Not that experienced a trader, but trading off some data analysis I have done
  9. W

    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    Should learn not to trade against the Fed and the month end. Postponing that learning to another day and going short at the opening. My daily indicators are showing a close lower than open. Hopefully not a costly education.
  10. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    In my opinion what WA, CA and NY did was the right balance of public health and economic considerations. What TX, FL, GA did is too aggressive Sweden made a mistake.
  11. W

    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    There is just too much volume at this level from last year looking for an exit near break even. If it goes up I am betting it is going to be a grind - atleast two weeks - or a swoon down before the move up. That's my view. If it works out, will make money from calls I have written and puts I...
  12. W

    Should we use the 200 day EMA or SMA?

    I hope I am not making up the following, but vaguely remember reading -the 200 day has something to do with a very common financial performance analysis period - that is a year. Ema approximates it better than simple - Paul Tudor Jones used them extensively. - given that so many old school...
  13. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    Someone who compares Sweden to UK without regard to international mobility or population density is either employing Trumpesque level of analytical thinking or politically biased. If you want to compare Sweden, compare it to it's neighbors who have similar culture, geography etc.Norway and...
  14. W

    Taleb vs Assness on tail hedging and risk parity

    Taleb is a value investor. Based on his valuation models he believes volatility and risk to downside is priced cheaply, so he buys them. We can understand value of money, some of us can understand time value and compounding, very few understand volatility value of money. In a sense not much...
  15. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/22/investing/moderna-coronavirus-vaccine-stock-sales/index.html
  16. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    Yes, look at John Hopkins. Read the fine print and let me know what the source of data is. I have and I know. Now, tell me whether you know what has happened to those sources of data in the red states. I agree with you, people should try to use their brains.
  17. W

    ES Journal - 2019/2020

    Nice call
  18. W

    Should US open economy sooner in May or wait more.

    It is common sense, not leftist, to encourage wearing masks. No one is against opening of the economy. CA is opening, NY is opening. In a measured way, based on recommendations from scientists. Sure I am against opening up too soon. In FL, TX, GA we did that too soon. For political purposes to...
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