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Sounds like you want your friend's house to collapse in value,with friends like that who needs enemies?

Too much by the sound of things

I was countering the care-free comment that rates were "going up" - all you've pointed out is that rates in general have been cut.

And why do you assume it will be the same? You assume rates will go up - so what?You don't know that.You assume the real yield on T-Bonds is unsustainable but you don't know that either. It seems to me that you're predicting these things with huge confidence as if they've already happened...

I wasn't going to bother posting on this thread any more as this topic seems to have been done to death but I couldn't let this one go - which rates are you talking about?When exactly do you predict rates going up?The next move by the Fed is a virtually guaranteed 25 basis point CUT with...

pitz: OK,the interest rate is not particularly high if you go back 20 years but it's still around the highest levels it's been for 6 years and I hardly think the BOE is going to start raising them any time soon(unless they wanted to cripple their own housing market,which is widely regarded as...

Seeing as you're the self-declared leading authority on the housing market and interest rates why don't you build into a property portfolio and offset it with positions in the STIRs? As you previously posted,you actually "work in sales". Sounds to me like you NEED this property market to...

May I ask why you still only implement your methods in 3-5 lots? With such consistency over time isn't it natural to increase size and hopefully therefore profits? This is the usual pattern of profits I would expect from a talented and consistent trader and it usually blossoms over a three...

And yet you say it like we're all supposed to be impressed. WOW!.................Well done. Since 2001 if any of my traders were up such a small amount I 'd have got rid of them. You should really work on that system.

But that's providing that within a year or two they do come down. What if they don't? What's your exit plan then? Do you know what the fuck you're talking about?

If you put that into practice in the UK where interest rates are still high you'd be saying now is a time to buy there,right? They just had their weakest housing figures for 16 years and the immediate future looks bleak so I don't know how well that would work. Also with 10-15% mortgage...

Here's a related article: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7vI60Ei36Eo

So in what way are you qualified to be so confident with your predictions on the housing market? I thought this forum was for traders,not salesman.

True,some very dubious calls and that can't be denied. But that's a pretty biased summary of his career,he obviously made some good calls along the way too.

Greenspan doesn't seem to think so,he thinks house prices could stabilize this year: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aaxAVt6wuHQg

Sure there are some that are underperforming, there always are, quant or no quant. Exogenous events happen. Would you surmise that some non-quant funds have been hurt by margin calls and higher haircut rates? Besides, it's buyer beware out there. Nodbody is forcing investors to give...

I thought you said there was an entire universe of quant strategies out there,you seemed pretty convincing.I was referring to these,I thought that was obvious. I'm hardly dismissing them because one took too much leverage and blew up,the article listed quite a few that were...

No,according to my logic,talk is cheap. And my point was that Meriwether's 'comeback' fund is now in trouble too.

Oh,you mean like John Meriwether?

Great.So in a few years when these other quant strategies seem to be working well and are earning a fortune we can all wait for them to implode too. I lost total faith in these quant guys and the level of their 'genius' when one said the pattern of events that took place which blew them out...