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The FED has a real delima here. With the dollar getting beat up overseas and gold up high and economy slowing the pressure will be to cut rates. That will in turn further hammer the dollar and push gold & inflation risks up. Its going to be interesting to see which poison the FED accepts. ARMs...

Looking at today's SPX close it looks almost like a doji - a point of indecision. But SPX was up fairly strong almost 5 points beyond today's' close till the final 20 minutes of trading when it fell back on thin volume. It looks to me like the market is "dithering" and looking to shake out...

Let me guess - this is the equivalent of a dyed in the wool perma-Bear's ultimate wet dream? :D TS

I don't think so. The prices are already figured in mostly. Compared to all the alternatives (bonds and real estate) stocks are way way under valued on a liquidity and capital payback basis. Run the numbers. Real estate is near a bottom in most areas except rust belt (which admittedly is busted...

Mav, Your insight has given me an idea. Clearly, liquidity and wide spreads among various synthetic constructs implies an equivalent inefficiency in option prices. Do you know of any scanner software packages or trading tools that can scan real-time price data using various synthetic equivalent...

whoo hoo! SPX up nice today. Just picked up a a modest number of simple credit spreads at the SPX CALL 1435/1445 for a .40 net credit. Going to try to build up the position with higher premium now and more contracts. TS

Actually I think that currency can be a fair proxy for metal (remember silver certificates?). I personally see little difference between Greenbacks and T-bills as an exchangeable "promise". But I think debt instruments should be the new currency. In other words, at the rate we are printing debt...

Well this may philosophically resolve to a simple case of the king's eyes being bigger than his capacity to "enjoy" what is within his field of vision. :D But it does sound similar to King Midas' dilemma too. BTW - pragmatically my personal experience is that that the "chicks" are pretty...

If the bill collectors are mean and do not extend additional credit or continue to barter cheap goods in exchange for exported paper debt notes or other favorable trade terms its time to use the investment that that debt bought. In other words convert lead for gold and simply shoot the bill...

Apparently we are officially at the name calling stage of the discussion. I personally would prefer an independent check and balance on government spending and currency inflation via a standard. However, thus said, the only economic thing that really matters in the long run is "confidence" ...

This is personally what I am hoping for. With the dollar being so low I expect foreigners to come rushing in to buy up "cheap" dollar denominated equities and pushing our domestic markets up even more with a surge of buying pressure. Putting myself in their shoes though the fundamentals suggest...

Sure. I simply think it will take pressure off the FED to raise interest rates and let them find yet another "plausible" excuse to not do anything. Essentially the global market gives the FED a face savings opportunity here. That increases their options to do something else in the future when it...

For now at least through the first half of 2007. I think the dollar's decline is going to really give the FED a lot of better options and will bolster exports. M&A could get a boost as well from global private equity. TS

I am still quite bullish. I think we are seeing institutional reshuffling and tax loss taking as well as foreign money profit taking on dollar weakness. There is still tremendous value in SPX and it is highly over sold having just penetrated its 20 day moving average. Let's see how it closes and...

The only thing that concerns me at this point on the SPX run down ( as of now down to about 1381) is that it just did penetrate below its 20 day moving average. This is the first significant penetration through this trend in about 4 months. I am still thinking this is an aberration or foreign...

With VIX up substantially and SPX down about 1.25% I went ahead and put on few more DEC SPX Put spreads at the 1335/1325 strikes. I think this down spike is foreign money temporarily pulling out to profit take on dollar weakness. I personally expect a lot more foreign and domestic sidelined...

Oh damn, you have a point here. I guess I'm going to have to go to tax jail. There has just got to be a free lunch and a place to stay in this deal somewhere. :D When I get out of jail, then, I'll take the tax write off for the loss of business income to my sole proprietorship, get a small...

Well, on the other hand we now have color movies, digital surround sound, flicker free movies that do not jump off the projector cam and tear in the middle of a showing, air conditioning, plush comfortable seating, health standards for those people who are stuffing those popcorn bags, much...

But look at the fun they had in those houses during that period of time. Look at all the business deals they probably made entertaining friends, business contacts, and the doors that open to relational opportunities. When you play at a certain dollar level expectations and the price to ante up...

No no no. The underlying goes circular as it goes through zero to wrap back around to 100 again (but on a different scale). This is because absolute zero volatility itself is considered 100% volatile since brokers and marker makers can't get commissions or vig on zero volume. That by...