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  1. S

    how many hours until fed cuts?

    Looks like it was 40 hours. Not a fed funds cut but close.
  2. S

    so when the dust settles, which subprimes and homeebuilders to pick?

    MTH can write off every land option and still have $28/book. That would leave them with just 1 years supply of land. Someone got margined out on MTH today at $16. Should be decent there. Director just loaded up and bought 200,000 shares $18-$21 in last week. BZH will probably keep having...
  3. S

    how many hours until fed cuts?

    This is getting nuts.
  4. S

    Fed can now cut without hurting dollar

    Other central banks joining in now. This is global event now.
  5. S

    Fed can now cut without hurting dollar

    Because subprime slime has spread to Europe and European banking system now in turmoil. ECB having to inject emergency liquidity into the system. This is no longer just a U.S. problem. European banks having more problems than we are this week. The dollar is ,pvomg i[. Dollar not likly to...
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    Homebuilder valuations

    I hear that alot, but i have looked at all the numbers and none of the builders are going under for years to come. Take BZH for example. they have nothing drawn on their line of credit and they don't have a bond coming due until 2011 with majority coming due in 2014-2016. All the...
  7. S

    Fed cut Monday or Tuesday

    Rate cut has nothing to do with helping the stock market. It has to do with the mortgage markets that as of friday has nearly shut down. Last time this happened in 1998 the fed did a surprise cut. This time seems 3 times as worse with respects to the credit markets. The fed could care less...
  8. S

    Homebuilder valuations

    I like BZH, HOV, and MTH. Consider this. BZH was $19 stock 5 1/2 years ago. Since then they made $1.2 billion after tax. Now the stock is $11.30 but the company has assets-liabilities which is $1.2 billion higher. Even factoring in for bad housing market for 24 months and many more...
  9. S

    Fed cut Monday or Tuesday

    Wasn't the dollar doing ok when fed funds were 1%? Will 4.75% fed funds and prospects that maybe the economy will stay strong be so bad for the dollar?
  10. S

    Fed cut Monday or Tuesday

    Seems like Fed will cut rates. If they are going to do it, they may as well take advantage of the surprise factor and cut Monday morning. I know it sounds crazy, but surprising the market one day early could add to liquidity generation. Credit market shorts will be sent scurrying.
  11. S

    I can see fed cutting rates next week

    Fed cut monday morning or Tuesday could happen. If lowering rates to 1% wasn't too risky, then lowering to 5% during the worst credit crunch in long time can't be too risky.
  12. S

    I can see fed cutting rates next week

    I can see the fed cutting rates by 1/4 point next week. The secondary mortgage market is in collapse and interest rates for nonconforming mortgages has moved up. Two tiers of the mortgage market are currently hardly functioning. I think the fed has nothing to lose and everything to gain by...
  13. S

    GS launching $20BB Debt fund

    This might serve to bounce credit markets monday? http://www.reuters.com/article/marketsNews/idUKN2738994020070728?rpc=44 Hard for shorts to press positions when GS coming in to buy. $20 BB probably not much, but symbolic and today's WSJ article says many scooping up these prices.
  14. S

    Basic Materials

    (1) PE's very low. Which means they are LBO/takeover bait. (2) Insane buybacks within sector (3) Foreign investors i think find comfort in the sector as they are not buying America but rather World growth. These are my theories.
  15. S

    Cramer: throw everything into tech

    Cramer said to throw everything into tech today at DJIA 14000. Ok Cotton, lets see how that strategy plays out.
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    refining margins crashed

    Yes. Wholesale prices are down 15 cents from last week. Even while crude keeps moving up. Refinery profits getting squeezed 30% in a week.
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    refining margins crashed

    Refining margins crashed all the way back to Feb levels. Never in the last 4 years has there been a crash in crack spread in the middle of July. Back to FEB margin in the middle of the summer driving season is unheard of I think. What is going on?
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    surprise BOJ rate hike

    Had a vision. BOJ surprise rate hike one month earlier than expected when they meet this week. This leads to an insane unwinding of carry trade which knocks down materials/oils and other high flying stocks (many of which that just went up 10% in a week) by 20% in 2 weeks. I don't know much...
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    crude inventories 9 year highs

    I read Europe inventory levels are at 2 month lows. Based on Brent, WTI CL is really $77 here if not for the record inventories. That is keeping it $5 depressed. This could be the way to look at it.
  20. S

    crude inventories 9 year highs

    The only thing going up faster than the price of crude is the size of the inventories. Crude inventories havn't been this high since May 1998. It would seem that higher inventories do not keep crude from going up. Maybe Crude would be $80 if not for the high inventory? The price of crude...
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