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http://www.morganstanley.com/GEFdata/digests/20050616-thu.html#anchor0 "China’s oil imports declined by 1.2% YoY in the first five months of 2005. US oil inventory increased by 6.4% in the first quarter of 2005. ..."

According to the latest data from the Energy Intelligence Group, global demand for crude has risen 1.59% over the last 12 months to 83.2 million barrels/day. However, global supply has risen 4.17% to 84.9 million barrels/day. The price of a barrel of crude is up over 60% during this same period...

Somewhat connected to Fleck: The slope of hope By Mark Hulbert, MarketWatch Last Update: 12:01 AM ET June 13, 2005 ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- The contrarian-based foundation of the stock market's two-month-old rally continues to erode...

Excelent points.

If you have a fixed money supply over a long priod of time, the value of money will increase. This is because money is scarce , while the output grows. The economy would have experienced massive deflation, with deflation more or less equal to real GDP growth. In this case, there would be no...

There are a couple of flaws. First, the mentioned rate of 10% is not inflation adjusted. It’s around 7-8% real return. Where does this return comes from? There are two components: 1) Real economic growth. Surely you agree that the GDP of US (inflation adjusted) is much greater than the one...

Adjustable Rate Mortgages and the Housing Bubble http://angrybear.blogspot.com/2005/06/adjustable-rate-mortgages-and-housing.html An interesting analysis.

The problem with bubbles is they like to burst. So you have to use some stop losses. But the trick is the stop needs to be wide enough to withstand its large volatility (most of the people knows it’s a bubble so there will be lot of fake crashes). So if this is not carefully calculated you...

Those selfish idiots… :)

Of course it goes both ways. Actually I was short (ever since oil went above 50, not a good trade yet), and was pretty much sure I was going to have a down day. Oil was falling, bond yield was falling, and consequently stock market was rising. And then wham! I was just curious what made my...

So it’s the Florida real estate bubble talk… Thanks.

Anyone knows why did NDX dropped 20 points in one hour?

This is completely unfair. First it doesn’t take 4 years, it takes multiple of this number to get trained to be qualified to make over million bucks. My brother is a cardiologist, so I know thing or two. As any other thing, medical profession is a commodity. You have to spend time in schools...

Nevertheless, 77% of Americans claim to have heard nothing about a potential housing bubble. http://biz.yahoo.com/edu/qc/?n=5486

I wonder what was the % of Americans thought there was a bubble in the stock market at the beginning of 2000?

I think OPEC will CUT production during the second half of the year. Especially if oil continues to decline. This could fuel another rally. Meantime demand will rise, but how elastic is to the price is I leave that to the market.

Jim Rogers Jokes http://www.autopenhosting.org/futuresoptions/Jim-Rogers-jokes.html :D

Understand what? Somebody asked for cases when SPX was down by >.5% and NDX were up by 1%. I posted the dates. That’s all. I didn’t give any extra analysis or opinion.

Just checked NDX against SPX 19-JUN-98 11-JAN-99 14-SEP-99 03-JAN-00 18-JAN-00 20-JAN-00 24-FEB-00 28-APR-00 23-FEB-01 18-OCT-01

As a trader let me ask you this. Lets say you can choose between two strategies. One is starting with 100$ then 101,102,103,102,104,103,105,106,103,104,105,107,106,108,109,107,109,110 The other one is 100,150,220,80,30,70,200,100,110, 150,220,80,30,70,200,90,70,150,130,110 So they both...