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I am very interested in the fact that you find both technical analysis and price action to not work in the long run. I get it you base your trading on other factors? Ie. trying to exploit the microstructure of the markets, or looking for arbitrage opportunites, etc.? In the back of my...

try using non-fixed time fractals. Ie. candles are only displayed after a specific number of ticks have taken place. I seem to find it easier to spot buying or selling pressure with them.

bump

what criteria is used to choose the different strikes in the call/put strangles? Does your selection of strikes depend on the main underlying trend? Or is your approach the same for bull, bear and lateral markets?

Very valuable post. Thanks.

lovely thread.. I would like to read what others have to say regarding this kind of reasoning.

he meant 1252 if i am not mistaken.

wow thats all this trading session needs.. a hike in rates. the second cause does makes sense though.

I thought that with the sell-off in equities, fixed income would rise and push yields lower on the T-note. Anyone have any idea on why this is not so?

good question. I guess you just assume the loss.

I still think its extremely tough to break the burocracy & protocols when it comes to corporate HR recruitment. Now if you have good connections, thats a different story altogether.

I have finished college - only thing I took up Marketing Management, and later realised that my passion resided in trading. The problem is I cannot get a break into any investment bank or financial entity - since my profile doesn't match what they are looking for. I am highly interested in...

Was just wondering, are there people here who have become successful & profitable traders despite not having a bachelors degree in Mathematics, Statistics, Physics, Engineering, Economics, Business or Finance? My main concern is regarding the low odds of "making it" as a propietary retail...

that was my original impression. The moves look more like a market supply/demand behaviour. It could also be the shorts covering their positions for the same reason (ie. if oil is going to retrace temporarily, they would want to close their short DUG positions).

Ok so this "underperformance" is due to the tracking characteristics of the ETF on the underlying, and not because of supply & demand issues (ie. short covering or people building up positions in DUG). Thanks.

Oil hits a new high today and this double short ETF ends up +5.40%. Does this fund actually track oil? I find the correlation a bit off.. Maybe its short covering? Or are the big players buying to build up a position for when the bubble goes pop?

nice article. thanks.

The shorter the timeframe, the more can be attributed to randomness. Add to that the nature of these options, and it sounds like punting on either red or black.

so a market maker could sell you the binary and hedge it with an offsetting vertical spread... giving him better odds and higher probabilities to profit, since he is exposed to both the range between the strikes as well as the max profit/loss. You, the binary option buyer, can only profit (or...

Is IV the only variable when pricing options that is subjective in nature? In other words, are all the other factors in option pricing agreed upon between market participants, leaving IV as the only variable subject to personal interpretation/calculation?