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HOW ARE YOUR forecasts made ? Regards

Past datas auto-correlation shows a high R2 with 7th may 1997. correlation is 96.27% based on 150 open days For the next 2 weeks , ndx remained flat before losing 5% then climbed slowly to make a 10% return in the next 4 months before the big crash of october 1987. If correlation...

THANKS Did you make some quantitative studies for that or just a feeling we get ? I went through a lot of charts and it seems interesting . I am going to make a few tests. I then need a few references

Is anyone following the KAOS function based on fractal maths ? At 0.5 the hurst component shows a random move for stock above 0.5 a persistent move stocks will continue in the same directiob below 0.5 a non persistant move / trend reversal is probable Does it work >

I update since end june my correlation with august 1980. you see on the chart how the last month datas have been experiencing the same moves than in saugust-september 1980. I used the first time, 82 open days ; THE ATTACHED GRAPH IS USING 150 OPEN DAYS. Normally it should be statistically...

Prediction is still extremely precise SPX should invrease 5 % in the next 2 months

One of my model is screening the highest probability of explosive moves for the most liquid stocks (stocks which have liquid options ) What I discovered after many years is that when a stock opens on a gap (down or up) , it is being stopped at a fibonacci level. That is extremely...

For the last 30 years, these are the average daily returns of SPX. Included the standard deviation of occurences First conclusion: statistically bullish (low standard deviations) until 4th July (pre holidays periods are often bullish) These statistics are supporting our serial...

Please that everyone propagates that chart then it will be even more efficient the reflexive theory of Soros There are many similitudes with 1980 (oil crisis) , of course interest rates were higher , it was a period of stagflation and we do not have any more the Inflation, so things...

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The forecast has been perfect today also SPX should climb 1 to 2% until end June before giving back its 3 days gain not an absurd scenario : mutual funds will push index for window dressing and sell evrything on tuesday To be followed sometimes statistics can be very excited

right now it is working SPX is up , it is rebounding from the big support around 973 esu3

Ok let's be clear I do not trade on statistics. I just want to know them. You might find nice correlations between SPX and a baseball cup results However this correlation tells something and is not unique: many other assets/commodities show simlar correlation. So even if I am not...

I do not try to optimize I I just select the biggest correlation (this one is 97.5% !!!) based on past data since 1955. I have other correlations (around 95%)and they produce quite the same forecasts Memory is not only short term . Memory is a wave memory

well yes it seems so simple Now the period 1980 is quite similar than now stocks made a bear market rallye before plunging until august 1982 (start of the long bull market)

I searched for the most auto correlated SPX data with the last 82 days and found the period coming from august 1980 Since 2 months it has perfectly shown the way We will test it today to see if SP500 makes a 3 - 5% move up in the next week http://groups.yahoo.com/group/futuresystem/...

nobody noticed but that was a great signal I love statistics

If correlation holds, we have a nice sell off in 30 minutes

SPX Intraday correlation with last FOMC decision seems to work well. If it goes on we could have a 1% rallye to 992 until FOMC meeting then just after 2, 3 moves up & down of 0.50% and after a sell off until 21:00, a flat close http://groups.yahoo.com/group/futuresystem/ to see the graph of...

Hello folks Did so read The Research Driven Investor: How to Use Information, Data and Analysis for Investment Success or TBeing Right or Making Money by Ned Davis could I get some feed back Thanks