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The View Down River Sunday, Jan 22, 2006 Euro FX (EC) Hope everyone had a good weekend. Just wanted to recap things for me. I am currently short at 1.2160 and I am looking for a sustained move down. I guess we could continue to range trade but I think the odds are against it. For...

If I traded this particular instrument, I would look for a sign of strength. Maybe one or two consecutive days when the volume is less than the spike bar and the close is greater than the open. The downtrend may continue, but look for change. I bet it happens very quickly.

I was once a VisionTrader, now I am a DownRiverTrader. I thought it may be helpful for all the index traders, etc to be reminded of this discussion. Keep sharp on the big down volume. Keep an eye out for strength. Good Trading to all. DRT

I made a mis-statement in the post above. I meant to say that the regression connects the 1985 high and the July 2001 pullback high. Sorry.

The Dollar Index is something I keep a close eye on. This is an interesting longer term view. I stretched a Regression Channel from the all time high on my data in 1985 to the low in September of 1992. The retrace went back to the 2% border in 2001 and 2002 but could not break out. The...

Good Point here. Thanks for reminding me.

I am not that big of a trader, but I typically trade 45 contracts with no problems.

I see the H&S, but didn't the neckline fail? Maybe I am looking at it sideways or something? Actually, I see a big divergence on the weekly which points to the topside. This is troublesome for me, but I don't trade based on indicators.

If I am wrong, there will be a breakout higher and then a pullback to the current highs will occur. If EC finds support here, and moves up then I am out. I will only take so much pain. I feel like we are at a significant level that will set the stage for this year. Just look at the USDCAD...

I know this post is going to get a few laughs, but just for conversation I wanted to give a few thoughts. I see us at a major "critical mass" level right now. I think most of the world thinks the USD is headed down and the mighty EURO is headed up. Well that may be so and if that is the case...

I agree completely. I only trade futures. There are several hundred thousand contracts traded daily on the CME. Sometimes in the twilight zone there is a spread but rarely and it only cost me $2.40 a side in a regulated environment. Don't worry about the slippage. That's like Walmart...

I would recommend not worrying so much about the cost of your transaction in trading FX. Worry more about proper position in the trade and be very careful if you try to take very short term postions in this market. I know this doesn't answer your question, but don't put the cart before the...

The reason most don't trade this way is obvious. Their stack of money will not match up to this business plan. Like most businesses that are formed "Longer Term Postions" require a significant investment of captial and sound money management skills. I trade both long term and short term...

I got short at the end of today at 1.2160. Full position and my target is around 1.1894. I also got long USDCAD but that is another discussion. May the force be with me. I am giving the EURO FX trade some room, if we push through the topside I think we will see a false breakout. Good...

I am long. Scaled in today near the bottom.

I covered at 1.2173 for a small profit. There is no follow thru here on MLK day and I am seeing signs of a possible surge up. I think I will wait for a better entry. Have a good holiday, if things change significantly I will be back. DRT

I reversed my position and am now short at 1.2198. My target is open, but first consideration is somewhere around the 1.2111 area. If this gives way, then somewhere around the 1.1984 area. I will be quick to exit if things head up first. Good luck everyone. DRT

Sorry. I can't help with this one. Maybe someone else can. What I do see is a lot of false breakouts at key levels where stops reside. In fact, it is likely a profitable strategy on its own.

Sunday, January 15, 2006 If you read thru the link to the Euro spot thread I posted, you would see that I was long going into the close on Friday. I took the opportunity to buy when things were heading South on Thursday. I made one entry at 1.2147 and another at 1.2120. These were not the...

Not sure I fully understand your question but.... I use TradeStation platform with an integrated platform account from RJ O'Brien as my clearer. You can trade EC thru many platforms and brokers. Just begin to follow along with us in the thread and hopefully you will get some trading ideas...