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I hope the wide margin inaccuracy not due to some kind of tampering :(

We’ve got some pleasant surprises for the economy this morning. Core Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.9% vs forecast - 2.0% Durable Goods Orders m/m 3.4% vs forecast - 2.3% New Home Sales 337K vs forecast 322K Good news. But how reliable are they? Is this a sign for the economy turning...

Looks like the daily chart wave-4 needs to be recounted.

Now the minute-chart showing some kind of weakness?

The daily chart wave-4 is still intact so far.

I would not trust the pre-market move too much. Let's see how it move after the open.

Thanks TT1! And does anyone expect a relatively smooth downward move from wave-4 to wave-5 this time based on the alternation rule (note that wave-2 construction was complex)?

I second that. Most of us have been used to linear charts for years. How to properly draw those TA lines on the log scale charts? Are those TA lines on log scale charts as effective as on the linear charts? These are the two main questions.

Yep, I don't exclude that possibility either. If that happens, we may buy more heavily:D

Yep, they told people how good the Iraq war was and moved to achieve their goal. There's no surprise now they do the similar things again.

If wave 5)5 moves 1:1 as the chart shows, the price may target to 590~600 area. But I’m not sure if this projection violates EW rules though.

I see. By then we will complete 3 bearish 5-wave and could expect some kind of good rebound or turn around :confused: :)

Do you mean wave-5 = wave-1 ? If so I get 660. How did you get 624.74 ?

Hi Mu, Thanks for the chart. If SPX daily price moves on wave 5)5 as expected, what would be the target level by your calculation? I figured this wave could move to 590~600 area.

a-b-c-x-a-b-c :confused:

Also, the last two times (Jan 28, 2009 the Fed kept rate at 0~0.25% and Dec 16, 2008 the Fed cut rate 0.75% to 0.25%) when the Fed announced interest rate decisions, the stock market went up in the same day but fell in the next couple of days. We may see the same pattern, perhaps.

still moving in the channel

broke the short trend line only briefly, oops. The market still wanted to move up...

just broke a trend line

Hope the momentum will last a couple of days this time.