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The ultimate efficiency is the ultimate randomness. Remember that. As time passes financial markets are going to get more and more random and introduce "irrational" behaviour more often (all other things being equal and linearly trending, that is). That's a result of supply side getting ever...

The idea that the general masses now see huge buying opportunities will make it "rally" much harder than previously. Something else will rally instead. But that'll hold true only if the masses actually put money behind their convictions rather than just speculate over it behind a glass of Sunday...

yeah, makes sense. Just rollover. Do you pay any special attention to weekly/monthly option expirations, month ends ?

by looking at those two comments i can conclude that we have a market (buyer found a seller)

yes, selling has bottomed, no we get a asymmetric buying decline. Everyone's gonna try to pick the long term bottom so the market needs to ride that one out too. So, keep having those 1:3 risk reward stops out there to make the market below 2000 :)

How do you think tomorrow's futures expirations affect price action ?

Your thinking is flawed. Housing market is nothing but a "fundamental derivative of the stock market". The reason people bitch about stocks is that they keep on using leverage when buying stocks but when you buy a house as an investment for rent then you are subconsciously much much more...

I would think of it as a temporary no pay vacation.

At the moment it's the only point. I'm not saying it's rational. It's not supposed to be. The problem right now is that everyone is afraid to lose all their money because of the reasons i outlined. I'm afraid you didn't read everything i wrote. It's all about the capital you cannot afford to...

ok, got it :)

pointless ? lol. Price is everything (to me). Can you explain what you said about the spread etc ?

Not tooo shaaabby. Now that's something i've never seen before.

I think markets keep on fooling the bulls. Most now think that the markets are heck cheap, so it gets cheaper through your stops. The last leg down is always about those asymmetric buyers who keep on getting stopped out. Markets HAVE dumped 50%+ too you know in the past.

The measures taken will have a dent on the economy, that's why the market falls. Add to that the uncertainty premium of the virus. Yes, we think this is temporary and seasonal for a probablity of 90% but what if it's not ? It's the what if's that matter now. People care about the money they have...

Can you please explain the reasoning?

Lol, what am i bluffing about ? :) hence, my quote: "The retardedness of everyone is beyond anything. You should really buy antidepressants instead of toilet paper. Social media + regular media has hiked the anxiety levels in recent years like never before." This wasn't directed at you, i was...

That's not advisable. Recall swiss central bank flooring eurchf at 1.200 back 2015 if i remember correctly. Dumb money hoping for a free lunch to ride the CB wave will ruin any intervention (in mature western economies anyway). FED is actually doing the right thing, tight dollar funds need to...

I'm not praising them, i'm just saying how things are. I'm aware of the level of retardedness out there right now :)

How ? By the fact that it was a force majure and not his fault. And as a steady hand with pushing to provide all sorts of stimulus i think the crowd could very well see him as a hero in the end.

The length is useless when the steepness takes over