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I'd also ask what made you successful at stocks? What type of analysis did you use as a filter?

Depending on which commodity markets you are interested in and also on why you are trading commodities I keep a blog called Not Just Inflation specifically for the ones that I am currently trading like a public trading journal and I will usually post in the Ag Trade ideas forum here. I'm...

Cocoa - worth a shot near the 200 day moving average? Cocoa falls back to the short-term trend line from the 26th of December. Even though the candle posted on the 7th was a big red candle with high volume after a doji on big volume the trend remains intact. If there were people that went long...

Sugar posts a doji, but the Dollar rallied... i'm sitting tight. Sugar posted a doji candle yesterday after 3 positive days which is not a great sign this early in the rally I probably would have expected more momentum ahead of the 200 day moving average. On the positive side the US dollar has...

Cocoa still seems to be trending higher from the mid-December lows and might once again pull back towards that trendline which is somewhere in the vicinity of 1970 for Wednesday's session in the US. If the break was any more meaningful than that say it drop back towards 1950 then that would...

just googled this, i was being lazy. Hard Red Spring Wheat. and Minneapolis!

Sounds like you need a long/medium term filter, so only trade in the direction of the 200 day moving average or whatever time frame but something a few timeframes larger than your signal is. and when you get a crossover of that major trend indicator then avoid trading till the change in...

Also whether you are 'confident' or not in your positions is totally down to your personality and system. A mechanical trader (which this approach sounds like it is) would say being confident is irrelevant because they are simply following a procedure which is expected to get stopped out at...

if i bought at 20 and exit at 20 then there is no loss aside from transaction costs. If I bought one at 21 and exit at 20, then the loss is 1 unit. looking at it another way - when the price got up to 21, the stop is moved to 20, so you have a unit at bought at 20 and a unit bought at 21. The...

and MW is Minnesota wheat correct?

is HRS supposed to be HRW (as in Hard Red Winter wheat)? otherwise i don't know what it stands for

That was Friday, what's your take at the moment? Do you scale into and out of positions? Or always one position of the same size ?

Thanks tomorton - but what does r:r stand for? risk return?

There's a second more subtle piece of knowledge which sounds obvious but reveals the insight of the process, which is that you cannot know which of the initial moves is going to become the big winner. With hindsight we can say that was a big winner I should have put on 50 units! But this is...

The strategy threads. There's a lot of discussions about the process of deciding how to trade / how to decide when to take off a trade and money management. These questions are as important , if not more important than entries. Also see how much to bet and when to bet (what is the basic math...

My read is they're all long or all short trades. Using numbers, you buy at 100, stop at 99.13. If the price moves to 100.87 then you buy a second unit and your old entry (100) now becomes the stop. The loss on your first unit would be zero because you bought and sold at 100. Your loss on the...

I think you are asking by managing 'how you add to the trade and take off some of your position' can you make money? I would say you need to do some statistics on your predictive ability with a reasonably large data set in order to have confidence. You might be able to make money but your...

Cotton - still some more room on the downside. Still feels like there is some more room on the downside in Cotton, at least into the 50-61.3% retracement of the last run up shown in the picture. Might go further back to the 200 Day Moving Average but for the moment definitely not a time to take...

Cocoa steady, sit and hold. Cocoa has had another day in a narrow range above the 200 day moving average which is a good sign. I could not say the candle from the 5th of February was a classic doji but it is at the end of a long rally so I think the only strategy from here is to sit and hold if...

Sugar fights back, manages to escape the bears clutches... for now. Surprisingly strong candle posted by sugar yesterday after the big negative effort by the bears on the 31st of January. The fact that they were not able to take out the previous lows on the 18th and 19th of January and now have...