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Sorry for being imprecise. I meant stimulus in the traditional Keynesian sense of govt spending. I think only 20-30% (or maybe less) actually been spent and we'll be into 2010 before the even the bulk of it is out the door IIRC. I don't normally hear monetary policy referred to as stimulus...

Oh, so you expect me to follow my own advice? How stupid do you think I am? That was a rhetorical question. :D I guess I'm cautiously optimistic. Like I said, I'm just an arm chair economist, but I think it's too easy to lose perspective when you've been as close to edge as we have...

Great article. I love the author's style. There was also a recent thread where the role of the consumer was discussed - http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=172661. I tried to show that while the consumer is certainly important, a big chunk of "discretionary" spending...

This is just my opinion and is based solely on spending 3-4 hrs a day watching Bloomberg, reading the financial press and having just enough understanding of economics to be dangerous. This is how I see things playing out. Everyone is going to be caught flatfooted by the amount of growth...

That's an astute observation in as much as I didn't consciously realize that's what I was doing. I'm sort of like yin and yang on tap. Too much of one and I tend to dispense the other. It's partly a compulsion but also a living testament to proposition that balance is everything. I...

Those are all good points. I might even meet you more than half way as to some of your interpretations of the facts. BUT, the worst disease you can have as a trader is tunnel vision. You think you've got a handle on some fundamental truth and being a man of conviction, act on that belief...

Here is the definition of GDP You don't see an entry for debt anywhere in there. It is only indirectly related to GDP through the other components. Will decreased leverage mean less consumption? Barring any sudden change in a relevant factor such as productivity, yes, definitely. But the...

Here is the definition of GDP You don't see an entry for debt anywhere in there. It is only indirectly related to GDP through the other components. Will decreased leverage mean less consumption? Barring any sudden change in a relevant factor such as productivity, yes, definitely. But the...

The point is that spending is not as elastic as one might think. I'm not saying that deleveraging will have NO effect. I'm saying that quantitatively, the magnitude of the effect is subject to debate. Also, let's not forget that investment is between 15 and 20% of GDP. So when the savings...

Just out of curiosity I decided to look at how consumer spending breaks down. The most recent data is from 2007, but if you look at how much is spent and on what, you'll see that at least 50% of what people spend is not what you would call "discretionary". see...

This is just anecdotal AFAIK. I don't think I've seen any hard numbers. Supposedly, with the weak dollar, the US is becoming a prime tourist destination. Whether or not it will help our balance of trade is another matter, but if the phenomenon is real, how would you cash in on it? Last I...

I think they're like the pyro who sets a building on fire and then rescues the people inside. Technically, he saved their lives, but they were only in danger because of what he did. That's a little harsh though since although they should have seen the housing bubble and done something to...

What exactly are you asking? Apparently it has something to do with bank holdings in CMBS or commercial paper or something along those lines. If you're saying that the CRE market will be the final nail in the coffin, well, I'm sure that will be true for some banks. Unless you're GS or JPM...

I can't remember the analyst's name or his firm, but he was on this afternoon on the show hosted by Pim Fox - "taking stock". He's predicting that it will basically drop another 30%. His rationale was that the company was backpedaling on the idea that the polycrystaline manufacturers would...

Just when you finally convince people that Jersey is more than the turnpike and mobsters, something like this comes along. But at least the rabbis were getting a nice markup on those kidneys huh? What a bunch of chidrools.

My timing has always sucked but I'll give it a stab. And if you want to make fun of me later when I'm wrong, I'll just point to this caveat. I don't think the multiplier will pick up until there is an increase in economic activity. The problem is that this could come from many different...

The point is that they don't have to raise rates. The M1 multiplier is just barely above one. So the excess liquidity isn't coursing through the system creating more money. It's stagnant and therefore unlikely to result in inflation for the immediate future. The only danger of inflation...

How exactly is this bad? China spending down reserves seems like the proverbial win-win. Prices on everything from capital goods to real estate are depressed, so they will be getting some very good deals. It will make Buffets investments in GE and Goldman look like amateur hour. $3T in...

I think the current estimates are all wrong. The inflation game is a psychological war, not a boots-on-the-ground kind of war. Remember what happened a few months ago when rates were headed up in spite of "quantitative easing?" That was the bond market flipping Ben the bird. They were...

economists are at a tactical disadvantage because the rules of the game keep changing and the amount of arguably accurate information available is pretty small. So not only are you working blind, but you can't even get your bearings. Take the credit crisis. You could have spotted the...