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dont feel bad, I didnt pull the trigger at 45.50... now i just have to watch this setup feels a bit similar to flash crash: big sell-off early followed by a big snap-back rally mid-day which failed. Only difference is we're not seeing a scary down move in the risk crosses (eur/jpy, eur/chf...

When the executive branch says jump the the board asks how high. Congress is irrelevant. If the administration wants stimulus, and can't do it on the fiscal side, we'll have QE3 or some other monetary machination. Of course none of it will work, increasing excess reserves will not create...

Forgot to add the chart.

Not sure if the range in the VIX is terrifying or comforting, with the type of price action we're seeing...

That seems managable. Of course, that assumes no more adds. Have you run your max loss assumptions for a "full" position? I'd be shocked if we saw a test of 1200 before a bounce back to 1285+, but I also thought we'd see a tradable 2-3 day bounce after the debt-deal announcement.

So, based on your earlier post, you feel comfortable being long 25 lots on $125k captial, deep in the red, with the way this market is behaving? 12.5x leverage may not be too crazy in a calm market but the ES was down 30 handles in basically a straight line today! Odds are it bounces hard, but...

Since everyone is apocalyptic right now, and assuming a horrible number, it probably won't be that bad... I'll go with 50 - 75k Of course the ADP # is kind of a joke anyway; non-farm on friday should be interesting.

Agreed, except for your point on monetary policy and deflation. The only way they could be more accomodative is dropping the rate on deposits at the fed to 0. Even then banks probably just buy bills, pulling the short end of the curve down to 0 to limit duration risk, since there isn't enough...

I'm curious why you think that expectations of fiscal/economic contraction will increase long(er) rates? Cuts too small? Downgrade? Re-assesment of growth in the second half? Not saying they won't, just curious...

It's the tiger blood. Seriously though, if you're trading a small-loss/lower prob. strategy you have to be agressive when you're on imo. Let others pick up the nickels, as long as you're driving the steam-roller.

No way, profits in the morning = big(ger) profits in the afternoon:)

For breakouts TF is better than ES, although the indices as a group are tough to breakout trade IMO. btw, TF can be a lot of trouble for the undisciplined, so be careful.

I've always felt markets condition a behavior before they punish it - kind of like a sick joke that someones playing. Anyone who traded the flash crash saw first hand what averaging down on leverage can do. Once the market broke that 1095 level, liquidity disappeared, and we basically...

2 things: 1) The psychological effects that can cloud judgement when losses grow exponentialy 2) There isn't a blow-up potential with small losses. There's too many things that can go wrong with any trade, regardless of how effective one's strategy has been. Personally, I assume the worst...

*Sen Reid: Has 'Signed Off On Debt Deal' Pending Caucus Approval *US Rep Schrader:Most Blue Dog Democrats Likely To Support Final Debt Ceiling Compromise Looks like a vote later tonight...gonna be an interesting open for sure edit: now they're saying no votes tonight, progressive caucus...

Also about 250k Aug SPX calls/puts at 1300; 445k Sep

Started a small bearish position on the VIX with Oct verticals, on the assumption a deal gets done over the weekend and the market starts pricing in another grind higher. Oct vs. Aug gives me a little time in case they don't come to a deal. Depending on what the political situation is, will...

I'm assuming there were some issues in the short-term funding markets if all the REITs got hit. edit: looks like there was a spike in REPO rates

Why not have 50 seperate countries? Each one would be a little different and you could shop around. Tax, regulation, entitlement, abortion policies etc. etc. would then reflect the will of the people who live there. If the individual nation-states want to create trade, immigration...

I believe that was tried once, didn't end well. That said, the country was formed by seceding; it's funny how we excoriate secession talk in one breath and yammer about the right of self-determination in the other.