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1) A failure to raise the debt ceiling will not cause a debt default. Gov revenues are 10x current interest expense. 2) The correlations you state only work under certain conditions. If there are serious fiscal concerns stocks, bonds, and usd could all fall as people move capital out of...

Thanks. I agree about the timeframe which is part of what I'm going for (avoiding some of the noise in ES.) As for overnight: I've noticed the spreads widen out quite a bit with pretty low volume. Do you hedge in ES until the cash open or can you get fills overnight inside the spread?

that and a 100 IQ requirement; hell, I'd take 85 at this point

This. As long as people don't make too big an issue of it publicly the lobbies will make sure it's not changed.

I've traded ES for many years and have recently considered ES options to compliment and partially supplement what I'm doing. If you've traded both, or the options, I'd appreciate your thoughts / criticisms on the following: The way ES trades (alot of chop, retests, fake-outs, backfill etc.) I...

shhh.... finding quality fades is more work if I have to go journal by journal.

Fair enough. That far out of the money just seems like more trouble than it's worth imo. +1

1) There's a reason why population exploded after the Industrial Revolution. Higher population is an effect of higher living standards, up to a point. The bigger issue is demographics and the distribution of scarce resources. 2) The idea of over-population is quite old and has been proven...

Or - and here's a crazy thought - maybe ADP is the correct one. Maybe one leads the other. Maybe they are both completely wrong. Who the hell knows. I'm curious why there is the knee-jerk assumption that the worse number is the correct one. We should judge the economy by the data, not...

The only alpha I see is the implied put written by the bankruptcy courts, the clearing system, and the 0 bound of net worth... They are American style. Beta, you're going to do what you're going to do(and honestly I appreciate someone selling those options,) but do yourself a favor -...

Wow. I've considered /GC but will probably just stay with 6E and GLD options/verticals. You can look at the positive side of that trade: you didn't take that hit on the entire position; probably would have been 2pts away.

Yes. It's still tough to stand aside and watch a trade go big. I think alot of people have a tougher time with this than taking a trade for a lose. In hindsight you say "damn, I could have made XXXX" Of course in hindsight you always look at the best trade that could have been made, and not...

If you don't mind, on what size are you getting bad slippage on /GC ? If he's entering on a buy/sell stop (with no slippage) he's effectively 5 tiks from a stop.(1 tick against = 2 from entry) Still seems problematic for a market that trades like ES - not alot of clean moves.

I do. Up until this new update I loved it. Fast enough for what I do. Decent interface. Static DOM. Orders rest on server. Free. Never had an issue. This new update is not good. I'll give it some time but may have to switch if they don't do something about it. Can't really come up...

When did goldman hold a gun to meriweather et al. and force them to lever up a bunch of convergence trades that would all correlate during a crisis? They had plenty of early opportunities to scale it back, what any decent trader will do when things get dicey. With all the geniuses involved...

I guess it all comes down to the EUR. A greek default hits the banks and ecb holding the paper, the interbank market, the other periphery concerns. Everyone will be running around screaming about a collapse in the EUR and right now its still 13 figures higher than its late 10' - early 11'...

incontinence?

Two monitors, two systems, two connections. A large screen (on one system) for charts; the other for the platform - simple w/ built-in redundancy. This is for trading about a half-dozen futures contracts.

I'm sure it has nothing to do with the explosion of labor productivity and real wage rates after the Industrial Revolution. Look at how many hours of labor it took people to buy X amount of oil in the late 19th century. Now look at it today. As production, real rates, and living standards...

I used to run a free ES room about 5 years ago on paltalk that went pretty well...so paltalk is an option. From my experience we would need to have a few basic rules: 1) if people are posting entries/exits they can't be after-the-fact. (I can't stand when people post an entry after the...